(New York)

One of the important elements of last year’s tax changes that has not been covered much by the mainstream financial press is the way in which the new tax code proves a big boon for REITs. That big gain is that the effective tax rate on REITs has been slashed from 37% to just 29.6%, a big move downward. One REIT industry expert summed up the changes this way, saying “Now, REITs have even more of an advantage over fixed-income products … Seventy percent of REIT returns have historically come from income, so any relative pickup in income is a big benefit for investors”.

FINSUM: This seems like a big help to REIT investors, and it couldn’t have arrived at a better time given that rate rises will inevitable hurt REITs a bit.

(New York)

US dividend stocks are in a curious, if tenuous, positon at the moment. They have done well recently, but rate rises seem poised to bring prices down. Overseas dividend stocks, however, are not in the same predicament, as the rate environment in many other parts of the world is more benign. Accordingly, here are six overseas dividend stocks to consider: Allianz (4.1%), Hang Lung Properties (5%), Heidelberg Cement (2.8%), Nestle (2.9%), Royal Dutch Shell (5.3%), and Sanofi (4.1%).

FINSUM: Not only are these stocks attractive because of the good yields and mild rate environment, but they mostly have very attractive P/E ratios as well.

(New York)

Several Wall Street analysts are warning that the US will fall into a recession in 2019. Some are even pegging the odds as high as 100%. The reason for the recession will be the increasingly aggressive Federal Reserve, which yesterday adopted a more hawkish stance on the economy and rates (with a more aggressive dot plot and the removal of “accommodative” from its policy statement). The current trade war is the other big factor which could push both the US and global economy into recession, as international trade is already contracting.

FINSUM: Forecasting the timing of the next recession seems futile to us. However, we will admit that the Fed adopting a more hawkish stance (and the fact that the funds rates is now higher than inflation) worries us.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley has just put out a warning, or perhaps better stated, a notice to investors. The bank is reminding the market that this year will likely have the lowest returns in a decade. The bank’s strategists say that “2018 is on track to have the lowest share of positive returns adjusted for inflation across 17 major asset classes since 2008”. The poor returns have been particularly true for those holding globally diversified portfolios. What’s worse, Morgan Stanley thinks returns are going to get worse because of rising rates. According to the bank “We’re big believers that real rates matter most for risk markets, as it’s the rate over and above inflation that matters most for discounting future cash flows … As ‘invincible’ as the U.S. equity market has been, it hasn’t had to confront a different rate regime”.

FINSUM: If you look internationally, this has been a terrible year for markets, and it does seem true that rising rates won’t help anything in the coming year.

(New York)

Something very interesting is happening on Wall Street. Just when US outperformance over global assets has been peaking, US analysts are urging clients to move their money into emerging markets. The catalyst for the recommendations is that the Fed’s tightening cycle is getting more intense, which means US equity values might be peaking before a downturn. That, coupled with currently weak emerging market valuations, means EMs seem to have better upside.

FINSUM: We see the argument, but must disagree. There are two reasons why. Firstly, emerging markets have tended to do badly in periods of rising US rates, and secondly, because EMs will feel the pinch of the trade war, which means their economies are likely to be hurt even more than the US’.