Displaying items by tag: construction
It is not even close to approved yet, but the Biden infrastructure deal has been making serious waves. The implications of the deal are large and would send trillions of government dollars flowing into the private sector. With that in mind, here are four stocks that look like big winners from the package: Eaton Corporation (ETN), Jacobs Engineering Group (J), Herc Holdings (HRI), Mastec (MTZ). Three of these companies (other than HRI) are engineering/construction oriented, which makes sense. Herc Holdings is a rental company that leases vehicles (yes, the Hertz that went bankrupt last year).
FINSUM: Herc is interesting to us because they rent construction and earth-moving equipment. This injection of government dollars would flow through to them and provide a nice hedge against the headwind of the pandemic, which has slowed down retail car rental.
Biden’s new proposed $2 tn infrastructure package is a gargantuan bill (coming right after the newest pandemic relief package) that will have significant effects on stocks generally, and specific ones more narrowly. The plan is so big that it harkens back to 1950s era spending. Barron’s described it best, saying “At 10% of current gross domestic product, doled out over eight years, the plan reads like a Rooseveltian blueprint for economic and social engineering”. The big winners are pretty clear: infrastructure stocks, and more specifically construction and industrials. The Invesco DWA Industrials Momentum (PRN) and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) are great ways to play the rise in these types of shares, with the latter offering more large-cap exposure. In terms of specific names, look for MasTec, Aecom, and Jacobs Engineering Group.
FINSUM: Biden is setting up infrastructure stocks to have a golden run over the next few years. As the package inches closer to passing, these sectors should rise.
Investors are doing a lot of economic data analysis these days. As the economy picks up (for the most part) after the COVID lockdown, everyone is trying to guess the trend of the expansion. Well, in our search for new economic data, we found something that really stuck out to us as a positive: lumber demand. The whole lumber sector got hurt very badly in the first quarter as COVID shut down real estate construction. The collapse in demand led to a halt in production in the lumber industry. However, lumber demand for construction projects has come back faster than anyone anticipated and the supply chain cannot even keep up. Lumber prices rose 60% in the second quarter alone.
FINSUM: We think it is an excellent sign that builders and consumers have enough confidence in the economy and their financial positions to be able to create this kind of demand. V-shaped recovery?
So headline economic data has been good lately. Yet the markets are leaning towards a bearish view on the economy and a dovish view on the Fed. With such confusion, it is hard to figure out what might happen. Therefore, we are going to focus on some alternative economic indicators and today we found an interesting one: lumber prices are slumping badly at the time of year they are supposed to be rising. Lumber prices usually rise in the spring as builders stock up for construction. However, poor weather and a lack of construction is badly hurting prices. In May 2018 prices were at $639 per thousand board feet, now they are just $334, or down about 50%! Mills are cutting back production as a response.
FINSUM: That is a pretty alarming price drop and another sign that the underlying health of the real estate market is not good.