Displaying items by tag: Trump

U.S. farmers are facing a sharp drop in soybean and pork exports to China just as planting season ramps up, signaling serious trouble ahead. With China previously accounting for a major share of demand, especially for these two products, the sudden decline in sales — some dropping more than 70% — is hitting a fragile agricultural sector hard. 

The current trade dispute, now broader and more severe than the 2018 tariff standoff, comes with no clear support for producers and is compounded by related conflicts with other trade partners like Canada. This creates a supply chain crunch, not just at the point of export but also in key input materials like fertilizer, making the hit to farmers multifaceted. 

Domestic consumption isn’t likely to absorb the surplus either, especially as U.S. demand for pork remains soft and efforts like increasing biodiesel requirements are not enough to offset lost international sales. 

For many growers, the loss of access to a market of over a billion consumers could be a lasting blow with no easy substitute.

Cryptocurrencies tumbled as concerns over a broader U.S. stock selloff overshadowed recent efforts by President Trump to support the industry. Bitcoin dropped more than 3% in early Asian trading, while Ether sank as much as 6% to its lowest level since October 2023 before recovering some losses. 

The decline followed a sharp selloff in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 plunging 3.8%, its worst session since October 2022. Despite Trump’s executive order to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, investor sentiment remained fragile as macroeconomic risks took center stage. 

Analysts noted that leveraged crypto-related ETFs were among the hardest hit, with some plunging more than 30% in a single day. While Bitcoin hovered around $79,300, traders were eyeing key support levels at $73,000 and $70,000, where stronger buying interest could emerge.

Finsum: While many think of crypto as hedge against market volatility, we need to remember that those hedges are a little effective on the currency side. 

Morgan Stanley has revised its U.S. economic outlook, predicting weaker growth and higher inflation due to escalating trade policies. The bank now expects GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, lowering its prior estimates of 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively.

Inflation forecasts have also risen, with headline PCE inflation projected at 2.5% by December, up from 2.3%, while core inflation is seen hitting 2.7% instead of 2.5%. Despite fluctuating trade policies with key partners, tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, with China vowing retaliation.

These adjustments follow President Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, reversing an earlier move to impose duties over concerns about drug trafficking and migration.

Finsum: Restrictive trade and immigration policies could weigh on economic growth, reinforcing their view of "slower growth, firmer inflation."

After years of low volatility, foreign exchange trading is roaring back to life. The currency desk, once overshadowed by stocks and bonds, is thriving as global interest rate policies diverge and trade tensions resurface. 

Optiver’s FX volumes have doubled since 2024, prompting a shift to 24-hour operations, with new hires and strategic relocations to meet surging demand. Banks are also rebuilding their currency trading teams, recruiting veterans from the 2008 financial crisis alongside fresh talent eager to navigate the revived market turbulence. 

Hedge funds are fueling the momentum, with record-breaking activity in Asian currencies and a renewed belief that FX can add real value to portfolios. 

Finsum: Whether this marks a long-term shift remains uncertain, but for now, the “sleeping giant” of foreign exchange has undeniably awakened.

The municipal bond market experienced fluctuations in 2024, with tax-free yields rising in response to Treasury yield movements, particularly in the latter half of the year. Market uncertainty increased following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, which coincided with ongoing inflation concerns and economic crosscurrents. 

As 2025 begins, the potential extension of 2017 tax cuts under the new administration may impact demand for tax-free bonds, particularly if corporate tax rates are lowered. Climate-related risks, such as the LA fires and hurricanes, have drawn attention to municipal finance, with increased insurance costs and resilience measures potentially leading to more bond issuance. 

Despite these pressures, municipal credit quality remains stable, supported by strong reserves, prudent budget management, and infrastructure reinvestment. However, challenges persist in certain sectors, including healthcare, higher education, and public K-12 schools, due to shifting demographics, rising costs, and expiring pandemic aid.

Finsum: These are important things to monitor for municipal bonds, and the increasing role of DOGE, could drastically change this bond segment.