Displaying items by tag: impeachment

(Washington)

The Democrats may have won the House, but they are at a definitive crossroads. While the Republicans currently have a well-defined brand and agenda, the Democrats found themselves largely without a leader and without a clear agenda (other than being anti-Trump). That means they will have some big decisions to make in the near term as they try to mount a push for the presidency in 2020. There appear to be two major policy decisions the party is considering. The first is whether pursuing a fruitless impeachment against Donald Trump would be worthwhile, and the second, and frankly more intriguing question, is whether they will adopt a “Medicare for all” platform.

FINSUM: So much hangs in the balance right now. The Democrats have let themselves be overshadowed by the Republican party and will need to find their ideological and policy footing ahead of the next election. We expect the party’s agenda will move further left in order to serve as a mobilizing foil for its base.

(New York)

Ever since the now infamous “op-ed” about Trump’s inner circle appeared in the New York Times earlier this week, there has been increasing discussion of the 25th amendment, so we thought it would be good to give a quick primer on it. Basically what the amendment allows for is a president’s cabinet to remove them from office if they are deemed “unable to discharge the powers and duties” of the office. The vice president and a majority of the cabinet need to agree in order to remove the president. But if the president protests, it takes a 2/3 majority in Congress to remove the head of state. It has never been used to remove a president and was only ratified in 1963.

FINSUM: Given the likelihood that Trump would protest any move, a 2/3 majority in Congress seems like a massive obstacle for anyone trying to remove the president.

(New York)

Even if you aren’t thinking about it yet, the president is. In an interview yesterday, President Trump said that the stock market would crash if he were impeached. No one can be sure, but history suggests it would have little impact on the market. In the two previous cases in recent memory—Nixon and Clinton—the market behaved differently, falling sharply in the 12 months prior to Nixon’s impeachment, and rising before Clinton’s. JP Morgan’s best guess is that an impeachment wouldn’t be enough to derail the markets and economy itself.

FINSUM: Another interesting argument is that Trump wouldn’t ever be impeached until the market headed south, as that has happened in both of the previous instances (there was a brief but steep correction before Clinton’s impeachment). Nonetheless, we really don’t think Trump will be impeached.