(New York)

Okay investors, hold on to your hats. A big name has just come down with a stern and gloomy warning for the markets. JP Morgan is saying that stocks may have a giant bear market. How big? Try a 40% correction, according to the bank’s co-president. Daniel Pinto, the bank’s co-president who oversees trading and investment banking, says that markets are bound for a big correction because of fears over rising interest rates and inflation. The bank thinks the market will see a two- to three-year downturn where prices will fall up to 40%.

FINSUM: This is a big correction that JP Morgan is calling for. We do think the market might go through a rough patch, but we don’t know if it is going to reach these kind of Financial Crisis era proportions.

(New York)

The market had a big sell-off this week when it was announced that top Trump economic adviser, and former Goldman Sachs executive Gary Cohn was leaving the White House. The departure elevated worries about a trade war and left investors feeling that there was no moderating voice left in Trump’s inner circle. However, the Wall Street Journal reminds investors not to be overly worried as this “Teflon” market seems to always shake off fears and heads higher.

FINSUM: The WSJ’s argument is not very strong, but trade war does seem like an issue where fear greatly outpaces reality.

(New York)

Over the last several months there has been a lot of doom and gloom about commercial real estate. Everyone had been expecting a surge in defaults in 2016 and 2017 given that many mortgages issued in 2006 and 2017 were coming due. However, the delinquency rate on commercial mortgages has been falling for 8 consecutive months and is currently at 4.51%, compared to 5.31% this time last year and 10.34% in 2012. Many borrowers have been able to readily refinance their debts given high liquidity in the market.

FINSUM: The market for commercial mortgages looks to be in much better shape than many feared.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley advisors look out, it appears the firm is sending a warning out to its wealth management force. According to Wealth Management, “Morgan Stanley in February filed a motion for a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction against a breakaway team in Farmington Hills, Mich. It was recently withdrawn. A lawyer for the breakaway team suggests that Morgan Stanley lawyers deliberately used the court filing, and prolonged the case, to make the conflict public and deter other breakaways”. One lawyer commenting on the moves says that Morgan Stanley is likely doing it to intimidate their current advisors into not jumping ship.

FINSUM: The end of the broker protocol made what was a tenuous environment into an all-out battlefield. This definitely seems like an intimidation tactic.

(New York)

The big question mark for advisors is whether they will need to keep cutting their fees in an effort to make themselves competitive with robo advisors. Bolstering additional services is another way to defend fees, but getting credit for these is difficult. Therefore, advisors might want to adopt an approach Ron Carson, from the Carson Group, uses. That method is to send clients not only an investment performance report, but also a “relationship timeline”, which shows all the services you have provided them, such “as the sale of a business or the analysis of expected Social Security benefits”, but could also including helping find mortgages, assisting with travel etc.

FINSUM: People are always very price-oriented and it becomes very easy for clients to forget just how much an advisor does. This seems like a good way to highlight it.