Displaying items by tag: fed

Earlier this year, PIMCO cited expectations that the Fed would start a series of rate cuts as one of its reasons to be bullish on fixed income. The asset manager is revising this view given the lack of progress on inflation and now sees rate cuts being delayed until the end of the year or even into 2025.

Following the latest FOMC meeting, PIMCO sees the Fed pursuing a policy similar to the 1990s, when the Fed held rates and allowed inflation to trend lower over time. Fed officials seem wary of the downside risks of further tightening and are willing to concede higher inflation in the near term. 

Despite a recent uptick in inflation, the Fed seems content to hold rates at steady levels. During his press conference, Chair Powell remarked that monetary policy was restrictive and that rates could be lowered if the labor market weakened. He added that a rate hike was ‘very unlikely’ and that the inflation in resurgence could be temporary due to seasonality and noise. 

While fixed income rallied following the FOMC meeting, PIMCO expects FOMC members to raise their inflation forecasts from 2.6% to 3% for core PCE at the upcoming meeting. The firm also sees an increased risk of no rate cuts this year if inflation data comes in closer to 3% than 2%.

Finsum: Following the latest FOMC meeting and hot inflation data, PIMCO is lowering the odds of a Fed rate cut in 2024. 

State Street is bullish on fixed income. It believes that institutions should take advantage of attractive yields and that macro conditions are improving, albeit in an uneven fashion. Investors can achieve their diversification, return, and income goals without compromising on credit quality.

Many pensions have been able to close or shrink their funding gaps due to higher yields from Treasuries and investment-grade corporate debt. At current valuations, bonds are able to more effectively function as a hedge against weaker economic growth and serve as an effective hedge against equities. 

State Street sees the economy in a sideways period for rates and inflation. Therefore, it recommends that investors get long duration and see a more favorable environment eventually emerging for borrowers. It forecasts that inflation and Fed rates will end the year lower, providing a tailwind for fixed income.

In terms of active vs. passive strategies for fixed income, State Street takes a nuanced approach. It believes that in certain sectors, capable active managers have proven to add value. But this alpha has been shown to erode over time.

State Street has built a systematic approach towards fixed income which uses a rules-based approach. It weighs factors like value, sentiment, and momentum. It sees considerable benefits to increased electronic trading for fixed income, which has resulted in more data and liquidity. 

Finsum: State Street is bullish on fixed income due to attractive yields and an improving macro environment. In terms of active vs. passive fixed income, it takes a nuanced view.  

Amid ongoing concerns over inflation, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain its key interest rate at its highest level in over a decade, ranging between 5.25% and 5.5%. Despite solid economic expansion and strong job gains, the central bank noted a persistent lack of progress toward its 2% inflation target. Annual inflation rates remained elevated, with the consumer price index registering at 3.5%, driven primarily by surging housing and insurance costs.

Although there is optimism about reaching the 2% inflation goal, economists caution that significant progress is still needed. The Fed's strategy of keeping interest rates elevated to curb inflation has yielded mixed results, with inflation rates plateauing between 3% and 4% after initial declines. Complex factors, including rising costs passed on by insurance companies and varying consumer spending behaviors, contribute to the inflationary pressures beyond the Fed's control.

While concerns about the labor market and future business conditions persist, analysts believe the likelihood of a recession remains low. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the ongoing uncertainty, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments in the near term.

Finsum: Expect rates to hold steadier than markets might expect with this stubborn of inflation. 

Bitcoin faced a nearly 6% downturn on Wednesday, marking its weakest monthly performance since late 2022, as investors divested from cryptocurrencies prior to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The primary cryptocurrency globally witnessed a drop of nearly 16% in April, as investors cashed out gains from a scorching rally that propelled prices above $70,000.

Bitcoin saw a decline of up to 5.6%, hitting its lowest point since late February, hovering at $57,001, while ether saw more modest losses, down 3.6% at $2,857, also reaching its lowest level since February.  Despite being down 22% from March's peak, bitcoin remains up 35% this year and has doubled in value since this time last year, largely due to significant capital inflows into newly established exchange-traded funds since January. 

Crypto-related stocks, including Coinbase, Riot, and Marathon Digital, dipped in U.S. premarket trading, reflecting broader market uncertainties surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee's stance on interest rates.

Finsum: The original link between bitcoin and inflation/interest rates has deteriorated, but regulation will clear up the future for cryptocurrency. 

Stringer Asset Management shared some thoughts on fixed income, monetary policy, and the economy. The firm notes that while inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s desired levels, it will move closer to the Fed’s target over time. One factor is that the M2 money supply is starting to decline, which is a leading indicator of inflation. Another is that fiscal stimulus effects are finally waning.

Thus, Stringer still sees rate cuts later this year, although it’s difficult to predict the timing and number of cuts, creating a challenging environment for bond investors. During this period of uncertainty, it favors active strategies to help reduce risk and capitalize on inefficiencies. Active managers are also better equipped to navigate a more dynamic environment full of risks, such as the upcoming election and a tenuous geopolitical situation.

Stringer recommends that investors diversify their holdings across the yield curve and credit risk factors. It favors a balance of riskier credit with Treasuries. This is because the firm expects the bond market to remain static until the Fed actually cuts. It’s also relatively optimistic for the economy given that household balance sheets are in good shape, corporate earnings remain strong, and the unemployment rate remains low. These conditions are conducive to a favorable environment for high-yield debt. 

Finsum: Stringer Asset Management believes that fixed income investors should pursue an active approach given various uncertainties around the economy, inflation, and monetary policy in addition to geopolitical risks.