Displaying items by tag: bonds

Morgan Stanley expanded its ETF lineup with the introduction of the Eaton Vance Total Return Bond ETF (EVTR) and the Eaton Vance Short Duration Municipal Income ETF (EVSM). The bank is joining many of its peers in converting fixed income mutual funds into active fixed income ETFs. 

EVTR focuses on seeking total return through diversified investments in fixed-income securities, including corporate, municipal, U.S. government, and asset-backed securities. EVTR is actively managed and has an expense ratio of 0.32%. Its holdings have an average duration of 6.5 years and an average yield of 4.4%. 

EVSM aims to provide investors with tax-exempt current income by predominantly investing in municipal securities with a short-term focus. The fund has a net expense ratio of 0.19%. The average duration of its holdings is 1.75 years, with an average yield of 4.7%.  

Both funds were originally highly ranked mutual funds, with EVTR's predecessor, MSIFT Core Plus Fixed Income Portfolio, achieving a ten-year track record in the top decile, and EVSM's precursor, the MSIFT Short Duration Municipal Income Portfolio, ranking in the top third of its category over five years.

With these additions, Morgan Stanley now offers 14 ETFs in the U.S. and has more than $1 billion in total assets, despite introducing its first ETF early last year. Like many other asset managers, Morgan Stanley is looking to capitalize on increased demand for ETFs and active fixed-income strategies. 

Finsum: Morgan Stanley is joining many of its peers in converting mutual funds into active ETFs with the launch of the Eaton Vance Total Return Bond ETF and the Eaton Vance Short Duration Municipal Income ETF.

The last 40 years have been defined by lower inflation, creating a generous tailwind for fixed income. Now, AllianceBernstein believes that we are in the midst of a transition to a new regime that will feature lower growth and higher inflation. In this environment, the firm believes that fixed income investors need to make appropriate adjustments. 

It believes that inflation will be structurally higher in the coming decades due to deglobalization and demographics. Deglobalization means that supply chains will be reshored, undoing some of the deflationary trends of the last 40 years, and it will result in higher inflation due to greater manufacturing costs and wages. With an aging population, there is a smaller pool of available workers, which will also contribute to inflationary pressures. Both deglobalization and demographic trends will weigh on economic growth as well. 

Due to these factors, AllianceBernstein forecasts that 2% inflation is now the lower bound rather than a target. It believes that frequent spikes in inflation, as experienced from 2021 to 2022, will also become commonplace. This is a consequence of governments with large amounts of debt and future liabilities. Policymakers will be incentivized to ‘inflate’ away the debt rather than make painful cuts to spending. Additionally, lower rates will help contain financing costs.

Finsum: The last 40 years were great for fixed income due to inflation trending lower along with interest rates. AllianceBernstein believes this era is over, and we are moving into a new period defined by lower growth and higher inflation.

Bonds and stocks were higher following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady. The rally was a result of Fed Chair Powell reaffirming that rate cuts were still on track for later this year. He also added that the ‘policy rate is likely at its peak’. 

The dot-plot also showed that FOMC members are forecasting 3 rate cuts by the end of the year, which is in line with the market’s consensus and a reduction from their previous forecast of 4 rate cuts. Committee members also upped their forecast for GDP growth to 2.1% from 1.4%, while modestly lowering their forecast for the unemployment rate to below 4%. 

According to Fed futures, there is a 75% chance that the first rate cut will be at the June meeting. However, the larger message from Powell is that the Fed can afford to be patient given that the economy remains in a healthy place despite restrictive monetary conditions. 

Another catalyst for equities and fixed income was Powell’s comments on the balance sheet runoff. So far, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by about $1.4 trillion since June 2022 by letting proceeds from maturing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities roll off the balance sheet instead of being reinvested. Powell indicated that this round of quantitative tightening was nearing an end and that discussions were ongoing about when it would be ‘appropriate to slow the pace of the runoff fairly soon’.

Finsum: Stocks and bonds were higher following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Two particular catalysts were Chair Powell’s affirmation that the Fed’s next move would be to cut rates and comments about slowing the pace of quantitative tightening.  

The traditional perspective on direct indexing as solely an equity investing strategy is shifting, as highlighted by Jonathan Rocafort from Parametric Portfolio Associates, who advocates for its exploration in fixed income portfolios. 

Customized and tax-aware bond ladders present an intriguing opportunity, particularly for advisors with clients nearing retirement. While advisors are well-versed in tax-loss harvesting for equities, Rocafort notes a knowledge gap regarding tax-aware bond investing and the potential for tailored retirement income portfolios at scale. 

Direct indexing in equities involves purchasing individual stocks from an index, enabling tax optimization and customization beyond traditional funds. Similarly, managers can offer customizable bond ladders in municipal, corporate, or Treasury bonds, aligning with investors' values and tax strategies. Despite uncertainty in the interest rate cycle, there's optimism about utilizing fixed income strategies like bond ladders amid potential rate hikes in tax strategies.

Finsum: While it is still not the cheapest strategy, direct indexing could prove useful for HNW clients utilizing bonds as they near retirement.

Bond yields modestly rose following the February consumer price index (CPI) report which came in slightly hotter than expected. Overall, it confirms the status quo of the Fed continuing to hold rates ‘higher for longer’. Yields on the 10-year Treasury rose by 5.1 basis points to close at 4.16%, while the 2-Year note yield was up 5 basis points to close at 4.58%. 

The report showed that the CPI rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.2% annually. Economists were looking for a 0.4% monthly increase and 3.1% annual. While the headline figure was mostly in-line with expectations, Core CPI was hotter than expected at 3.8% vs 3.6% and 0.4% vs 0.3%. The largest contributors were energy which was up 2.6% and shelter at 0.4% which comprised 60% of the gain.

Based on recent comments by Chair Powell and other FOMC members, the Fed is unlikely to begin cutting unless inflation resumes dropping or there are signs of the labor market starting to crack. Current probabilities indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady at the upcoming FOMC meeting, especially with no major economic data expected that could shift their thinking. 

Finsum: The February jobs report resulted in a slight rally for bonds as it increased the odds of a rate cut in June. Most strength was concentrated on the short-end of the curve.