(Washington)

The SEC appears to be following through with the President’s mandate to lower the regulatory burden across all industries. The regulator is in the middle of easing disclosure requirements on companies. According to the Wall Street Journal, the new changes include “expanding the definition of small reporting companies, refurbishing risk-factor disclosure guidelines and streamlining the requirements for registered debt securities and acquired business disclosures”. Companies may now also secretly file IPO documents.

FINSUM: The US, and especially the financial sector, had, in our opinion, become over-regulated in the last decade, so it is good to see an easing of the burden.

(Beijing)

Something monumental, and very troubling, happened in China his week. The central committee there recommended scrapping the two-term limit for leaders, meaning Xi Jinping will stay in power indefinitely. This has “has put us back 30 years”, said one Chinese commentator close to the situation. One Australian academic comments that “We’ve had so many steps backwards [under Xi] … Media controls have become stricter, internet controls have become stricter. And now one of the few seemingly effective checks on a senior leader’s power — that he can only be in power for two terms — is now just being completely cast aside”.

FINSUM: Even for a country with no elections this seems quite authoritarian. We don’t suspect any immediate fallout, but this could be a slow-building drama.

(New York)

After a lot of talking, the long awaited hypothesis that tax cuts at the federal level would lead to more dividends and buybacks is actually proving true. More than 20% of companies have raised their dividend so far this year, with none cutting them, the first time that has happened since 2011. The hikes are also getting bigger, averaging 14% this year. The downside for the economy is that while tax cuts have also led to buybacks, they have not flowed into increased corporate spending and investment.

FINSUM: This is very good news for shareholders, but it does put a damper on hopes that the tax cuts may spur economic growth through corporate investment.

(Boston)

Advisors beware, your state is likely ramping up regulatory enforcement all around you. While all the focus has been on states making and/or enforcing their own fiduciary rules in the absence of the federal rule, they have also been upping their presence in other areas. For instance, Alabama is now getting involved in disputes between brokers and firms, making sure client assets do not get frozen. Massachusetts is enforcing the federal fiduciary rule, and Nevada is making and seeking to enforce its own best interest rule as well.

FINSUM: Our view on this is that there is a power and leadership vacuum in the federal regulators that has eroded states’ trust, all of which is leading to a more fractured regulatory landscape.

(Washington)

Many advisors may think it is going to take the SEC ages before it actually presents a new fiduciary rule. But that view may need to be shelved, as SEC chairman Jay Clayton has just confirmed that the rule is one of his top priorities. “We’re going to make a big effort to try and bring clarity and harmony to investment advisor [and] broker-dealer standards of conduct … I think it’s something that the market needs. I think it’s something that regulators need”. The SEC still has not confirmed a date for the debut of the rule, but most experts agree it will be this summer.

FINSUM: We think the SEC will debut a new rule, jointly with the DOL, in May or June, with the plan to implement it in spring 2019.

(New York)

Prepare to have your eyes opened, wide. US investors have taken out $642.8 bn of loans against their stock portfolios in order to deepen their positions in the market. That huge margin debt exacerbated this month’s selloff, and is likely to make the next one even worse, as many investors will be forced to liquidate positions. The size of the total margin debt (as a percentage of total market cap) is greater than at any point since the figure started to be tracked in 1980.

FINSUM: Record high margin debt sounds like a great leading indicator for a crash.

(Washington)

The financial industry just won a big concession from regulators. In a piece of Obama era legislation, mutual funds were set to have to make disclosures to investors whenever they hard large piles of hard-to-sell assets. However, the SEC has just pulled away from the measure, saying mutual funds will not need to do so. The measure was set to take effect in 2019, but has now been delayed because of disagreement on the total scope of the disclosures.

FINSUM: The big sticking point with this rule is that it would force asset managers to make judgments about liquidity even when they have little insight into it.

(New York)

Bonds have stopped their losses and there is a clear reason why—the market does not believe that the Fed is going to be as hawkish as many feared. The Fed’s January minutes were not as aggressive on raising rates as many suspected, and now bond traders are afraid that inflation may run quite hot without the Fed doing anything about it. Therefore, there is upward pressure on yields, but that force is being contained by the fact that rates are unlikely to be hiked aggressively. The current consensus, based on Fed comments, is that inflation could run to 2.5% before the central bank would become concerned.

FINSUM: The economy is doing quite well at the moment and the Fed doesn’t want to disrupt that by hiking too early.

(New York)

Famed bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach loves to put out scary warnings about the markets. Naturally, he often focuses on fixed income and macro themes. However, today he has a new prognostication. Gundlach says that Bitcoin is a good barometer for the direction of stocks. “Strangely, bitcoin seems to be the poster child for social mood and market mood”, says the bond fund manager, continuing “If stocks are going to take another tumble, I think it would be preceded by a bitcoin decline”.

FINSUM: We don’t think bitcoin and stocks have much relationship to each other. The factors that caused Bitcoin to fall (mostly regulatory concerns) have very little to do with why stocks fell.

(New York)

There is a lot of hype about disruption in the shipping business right now. Many investors fear that Amazon will start a major delivery network, and/or come to deal with a smaller company that undercuts the profits margins of UPS and FedEx. But make no mistake, that is going to be very difficult to do because of the nature of the delivery business itself. Residential deliveries, especially the “last mile”, are very capital intensive and require major installed bases of infrastructure for fulfillment. This means any loss-leading pricing will likely prove short-lived.

FINSUM: The big old players have a strong grip on the market. Only Amazon has the clout and capital to unseat them, but it would take several years of major capital commitment to do so, and it doesn’t seem to make enough sense to undertake that.