(New York)

In an article that addresses an issue unknown to us—that Americans don’t give US stocks enough love (?!)—BlackRock says that investors should buy American stocks in some select sectors. BlackRock says that “We have upgraded our tactical view of U.S. equities to overweight from neutral” continuing “The reason: Impending fiscal stimulus is supercharging U.S. earnings growth expectations”. Blackrock says it likes American tech stocks, US financials, and momentum and value plays.

FINSUM: US stocks surely haven’t been short on love over the last year, but we suspect BlackRock just means in the last few weeks. In that perspective, we agree that things aren’t as bearish as many fear.

(New York)

This topic gets thrown around a reasonable amount in the media, but because it seems to defy normal human perception, we wanted to run a story on it—the growing and dangerous level of stock concentration. So what do we mean by that? We mean that three stocks—Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix, have accounted for almost 50% of all the gains of the S&P 500 so far this year. This kind of concentration plays itself out time and again, whether it be in broad index tracking, or in niche sector ETFs, which end up being hugely weighted to just a few stocks.

FINSUM: Anyone can understand the danger of concentration at the point of purchase, but one of the key points to remember is that time tends to make a portfolio more and more unbalanced as the winners inevitably grab a larger share and the losers less.

(Washington)

None other than Eugene Scalia, son of former Supreme Court justice Anton Scalia, has now written a formal letter asking that the courts expedite their ruling on the fiduciary rule. Scalia says that Massachusetts’ new attack on Scottrade is a sign that the rule needs to be settled once and for all, as having it half-implemented means heightened legal risk. The wealth management industry has been waiting several months for a final decision on a fiduciary rule case in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans. Scalia called for urgency, saying “The action also shows that the fiduciary rule is exacerbating the risk of litigation, even absent 'best-interest contracts”.

FINSUM: There is absolutely no point to having a half-implemented rule. The government (courts included) either needs to fully implement a rule, or get rid of the concept entirely, because the half-in nature of today’s arrangement if not beneficial for anyone.

(San Francisco)

It is hard to overstate how well Apple is doing right now. Despite flat volume in phone sales, the huge prices of its devices mean not only are its revenue and profits surging, but it now commands its largest ever share of the smartphone market (51% globally). The company’s first quarter revenue was up 13% from last year, with net income hitting a jaw dropping $20.1 bn in the first quarter. Apple now commands 76% of all smartphone revenue in the US.

FINSUM: Apple’s ability to compel consumers to pay exorbitant prices for its product is a sign of strength for the overall business. Imagine if the iPhone X had actually been a hit?

(Seoul)

There was supposed to be a landmark meeting between the US and North Korea at the Seoul Olympics. It should have been a chance to start a diplomatic reconciliation. Vice president Mike Pence was set to meet a delegation from North Korea at the South Korean version of the White House. But alas, it was not to be, as on the day of the meeting (which was scheduled for February 10th), the North Koreans backed out of the meeting, allegedly upset at Pence’s stern public speech on the country’s human rights record.

FINSUM: North Korea has done very well politically at these Olympics, mostly by “humanizing” themselves to the world. However, a real diplomatic engagement would have been a great step.

(New York)

Here is a tough question to judge—are Treasury bonds yielding 3% good news or bad for the markets? Investors themselves haven’t made up their minds. At first the prospect of rising yields spooked investors, but they have recently grown much more tolerant. While at first investors were shy about rising rates ending the recovery, higher yields now seem to be interpreted as a sign that we have finally overcome worries about “secular stagnation” in the economy.

FINSUM: Our own view is that rates rising back to “normal” is a sign of the economy doing well, and thus is nothing to fear for equity investors.

(Washington)

Make no mistake about it, the Fed minutes from last month’s meeting today are a big risk. Economic data is a big driver of the market right now, and nothing could be more important than the Fed’s attitude on rates. If the minutes show a very hawkish Fed, then expect some volatility as investors interpret the odds for more and faster rate hikes. If the notes are dovish, expect gains. The minutes may include the Fed’s views on how the tax cut will affect the economy, which is another x-factor.

FINSUM: The market seems have grown slightly less worried about higher rates over the last couple of weeks, which we were readily expecting. But this could still be a risky minutes release.

(New York)

Many advisors still dismiss green investment, and do so for a number of reasons. Some of these include the asset class as having lower returns, or just being a “niche” interest that is too small of a market. While the perception on returns has already been readily proven to be a fallacy, there is another area where green investment could help clients—in a downturn. Recent evidence from the US downturn showed that green funds tended to perform much better than the market overall during the selloff, suggesting that the underlying securities are more resistant to losses than their conventional share counterparts.

FINSUM: This is hardly a mountain of evidence, but it is certainly suggestive of a potential benefit for green shares.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley has just come out with a big warning for investors. The bank says that the selloff over the last few weeks, which amounted to around 10% at its peak, was just a tiny start to what is to come. Describing the recent losses as the “Appetizer, not the main course”, Morgan Stanley says that big trouble will occur when growth weakens but inflation keeps moving ahead. “Strong global growth and a good first-quarter reporting season provided an important offset. We remain on watch for ‘tricky hand-off’ in the second quarter, as core inflation rises and activity indicators moderate”.

FINSUM: If growth starts to weaken, but inflation and rates are still rising, that is the catalyst for a big correction, or more likely, a prolonged bear market. But we are not there yet.

(Washington)

In what will surely go down as a landmark case, the state of Massachusetts is going after Scottrade in the first prosecution of misconduct under the fiduciary rule. Massachusetts says the broker held sales contests for its reps, before the acquisition by TD Ameritrade in September, which violated fiduciary standards. The state said about the prosecution that “If the Department of Labor will not enforce its own laws and rules, then the states must do what they can to protect retirees from firms who believe they can play with peoples’ life savings by conducting sophomoric contests”.

FINSUM: The developing role of states in both creating and enforcing the fiduciary rule/s is quite interesting. We are afraid the leadership vacuum currently surrounding the federal law might lead to a patchwork nightmare.