Alternatives
With private credit booming, private equity firms are upping their forecasts for their lending businesses. Apollo Global sees loan origination exceeding $200 billion annually in the next couple of years, up from its previous forecast of $150 billion. It’s seeing increased loan demand due to faster economic growth and public and private spending on infrastructure.
What’s new is that many of these private equity giants are now looking at lower-risk lending to investment-grade companies to fuel growth. This would put them in even more direct competition with banks. Apollo’s co-President Jim Zelter sees many investment-grade domestic companies pursuing capital expenditure projects and believes that private credit can compete with fixed income and equity as funding sources.
Already, banks are feeling some impact. In Q1, JPMorgan reported $699 billion in non-consumer loans outstanding, which was a $3 billion decline from last year. CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the entry of new lenders brings ‘an area of unexpected risk in the markets.’
Previously, he noted that these lenders have less transparency and regulations than banks, which ‘often gives them a significant advantage.’ He specifically cited startup banks, fintech companies, and private equity firms as examples of companies that function effectively as banks but are outside of the regulatory system.
Finsum: Private credit is taking market share away from banks. Now, private equity firms are looking to target investment-grade companies. Many banks are warning that this brings risks to the financial system.
US annuity sales reached $113.5 billion in Q1, 21% higher than last year. It was also the second-highest quarterly figure on record after the fourth quarter of 2023, according to LIMRA. There was solid and impressive growth across nearly every category, and the organization anticipates that sales will remain strong for the rest of the year.
Bryan Hodgens, the head of LIMRA research, noted, “The remarkable sales trends over the past two years continued into 2024. Favorable economic conditions and rising investor interest in securing guaranteed retirement income have resulted in double-digit sales growth in every product line.”
Fixed-rate deferred annuities accounted for the biggest share of sales at 42%. This segment generated $48 billion in revenue, a 16% increase from last year. 85% of fixed-rate deferred annuities had durations of less than 5 years.
Fixed-indexed annuities set a new record in terms of quarterly sales at $29.3 billion, 27% higher than last year. The next highest contributor were income annuities. Among this category, single-premium immediate annuity sales were $4 billion, a 19% increase from last year, and deferred-income annuities were at $1.1 billion, 35% higher than last year. Registered index-linked annuities saw $14.5 billion in sales and continue to be the fastest-growing segment with a 40% growth rate.
Finsum: Annuity sales maintained their hot streak with a new record for Q1 sales and the second-highest quarterly figure. LIMRA attributes this to high interest rates and unease about the economic situation.
The IMF estimates that the private credit industry is now over $2 trillion in size, with 75% of it located in the US. It now rivals the leveraged loan and high-yield credit markets in size. Private credit offers borrowers more speed and flexibility and provides higher returns and less volatility to investors.
While the advantages are clear, the IMF warns that as lending moves away from regulated financial institutions to private markets, systemic risks will increase. With private credit, there is less transparency, price discovery, and information about credit quality. Additionally, there is less information about how various players in the ecosystem are connected. Therefore, the IMF doesn’t see near-term risks but believes that as private credit keeps growing, there will be a need for greater regulation.
On average, private credit borrowers tend to be smaller and have weaker balance sheets than companies raising money through syndicated loans or public markets. This means more downside risk in the event of rising rates or a negative economic shock.
Currently, the IMF estimates that ⅓ of private credit borrowers’ financing costs are higher than earnings. It also warns that lending standards have weakened amid increased competition among lenders due to the influx of capital in the sector.
Finsum: The private credit industry has experienced rapid growth over the last few years and now rivals the size of the high-yield credit and leveraged loan markets. Here’s why the IMF is concerned that continued growth could lead to systemic risks to financial stability.
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Grayscale has been a pioneer in terms of bringing crypto investments to a wider group of investors with the launch of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in 2016. For some time, it was the primary vehicle to get exposure to the asset through traditional means. However, the SEC’s approval of bitcoin ETFs means that the landscape is more competitive, with offerings from leading asset managers at lower costs.
Now, Grayscale is launching a spinoff version of GBTC, which will have a much lower fee of 0.15% vs. 1.5% for GBTC. The new ETF, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), will have the lowest fee among all spot bitcoin ETFs. At launch, about 10% of GBTC’s assets will be moved to BTC, which means GBTC shareholders can convert holdings into BTC without having to pay capital gains taxes.
With the launch of several spot bitcoin ETFs, there were net outflows from GBTC despite bitcoin’s impressive gains over the past few months. Previously, gains in bitcoin would coincide with a surge in inflows into GBTC.
The success of new bitcoin ETFs from Blackrock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Ark also shows that there is strong demand for low-cost ETFs in the crypto space. In contrast, GBTC was structured more like a mutual fund.
Finsum: Grayscale is launching a spinoff version of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which will come with significantly lower costs as the asset manager looks to compete with the launch of several bitcoin ETFs.
The prospect of integrating alternatives can be daunting for many advisors due to the complexities involved, including numerous strategies, managers, and differing operational and tax processes. Nonetheless, there are key considerations for advisors navigating this terrain such as understanding that not all alternatives are alike, categorized broadly into growth, income, and diversifiers, allows for tailored allocations to meet client objectives. Also accessibility to alternatives has increased substantially, with platforms like iCapital and CAIS democratizing access and simplifying investment processes.
Additionally, the inadequacy of the traditional 60/40 model has led advisors to seek non-correlated strategies to bolster portfolio resilience, particularly during market dislocations. Historical analysis indicates that adding a 20% allocation to alternatives in a 60/40 portfolio can enhance returns and lower volatility, supporting the case for inclusion.
Shifting perspectives on longevity and retirement planning diminish the importance of liquidity, making less liquid investment opportunities, like private equity, viable options for younger investors. Overall, as accessibility to alternatives grows and traditional strategies face challenges, advisors are primed to deliver superior performance and resilience to clients through diversified portfolios.
Finsum: Advisors have more options and opportunities in the alt space than ever and should pass those uncorrelated returns on to investors.
The number of alternative investment options continues to increase, and many now consider it an essential ingredient to optimize portfolios. However, there are significant challenges that come with evaluating these investments, given that there is more complexity and advisors have less experience with the asset class.
The benefits of alternatives are higher returns, especially in high-rate, high-inflation environments, and less correlation to equities and bonds. The two biggest drawbacks of alternatives are reduced liquidity and price discovery. There are additional potential tradeoffs, such as limited transparency, higher fees, and restrictions on redemptions. Further, some alternatives use leverage or derivatives, which can increase tail risk during certain periods.
Therefore, it’s important to study how the investment performed during periods of market volatility, such as 2020 or 2008. With some illiquid investments, the asset may look like it’s outperforming until actual transactions start taking place at lower levels. Many skeptics contend that the diversification and volatility-mitigating effects of alternatives are overestimated due to the absence of mark-to-market pricing.
Another consideration is that evaluating alternatives has a qualitative element. This includes studying the reputation and track record of the management team. Overall, advisors and investors should understand that many of the traditional tools and methods used to evaluate public investments are not suitable for alternatives.
Finsum: Alternative investments continue to grow and are increasingly a core part of many investors’ portfolios. However, there are many unique challenges that come with evaluating these investments.