Private equity leaders are cautioning that while industry assets are likely to keep expanding, the number of firms competing for those dollars could shrink dramatically. KKR’s CFO Robert Lewin and Apollo’s president Jim Zelter both suggested that smaller managers, burdened by high fixed costs and limited fundraising capacity, may not survive the next cycle. 

Lewin forecasted a wave of organic consolidation over the next five years, while Zelter warned that many firms may already have raised their last fund without realizing it. Larger players, by contrast, are positioned to thrive, offering a wider array of products and attracting investors eager to simplify their GP relationships. 

Consolidation could also accelerate through acquisitions, with bigger firms absorbing weaker rivals. 

Finsum: The same pressures are expected to spread into venture capital, where scale and distribution strength are becoming just as critical.