U.S. Treasury yields plummeted, particularly on short-term notes, after July’s jobs report came in significantly weaker than expected, reigniting investor expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. 

The two-year yield dropped 25 basis points to 3.71%, its steepest one-day fall in a year, as traders priced in an 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The labor data showed just 73,000 jobs added in July, well below forecasts, and revisions to prior months brought the three-month hiring average to a pandemic-era low of 35,000. 

The market’s reaction signaled a dramatic pivot in sentiment, further fueled by political pressure from President Trump and dovish dissent from two Fed governors. Treasury futures volumes surged as traders abandoned flattening yield curve bets, and CreditSights analysts now anticipate a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, with more to follow by year-end. 

Finsum: The Fed can afford aggressive easing without stoking inflation, setting the stage for a bold monetary policy shift.