Bonds have weakened to start the year, given increasing uncertainty about the direction of the economy and monetary policy. Weitz Investment Management notes that credit spreads have tightened even while long-term yields move higher. Thus, the firm believes there is greater potential for losses if inflation meaningfully picks up from current levels or credit spreads widen.

It also believes that massive fiscal deficits are an indication that the inflation issue is not going to disappear anytime soon. It notes that over the last 4 years, deficits have averaged 9% of GDP, which was only seen before during wars. Currently, the national debt is increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days. And this is a major reason why the Fed’s aggressive hikes have not resulted in a recession. It also means that Treasury issuance will continue to be elevated as debt will need to be refinanced at higher rates. 

Amid this backdrop, the firm notes that there is considerable complacency among investors. It notes that credit spreads declined across the board in Q1 and are now at 10-year lows. It believes this is likely a result of strong demand for bonds as new issues have been oversubscribed and there has been a flattening of yields in the credit curve. 

To combat these risks, Weitz recommends looking for opportunities in fixed income across the spectrum and beyond the benchmarks. It recommends diversified and broad exposure, including fixed and floating-rate securities. Ultimately, investors need to be nimble and prepare for various scenarios, such as the economy continuing to be robust, inflation resuming its ascent, or the economy stumbling into a recession.

Finsum: Weitz Investment Management sees considerable complacency within fixed income while also noting some risks. It recommends investors seek broad and diversified exposure to the asset class and pursue a more active and nimble approach. 

In Q1, inflows into active fixed income ETFs exceeded inflows into passive ETFs at $90 billion vs. $69 billion. This is a remarkable change from last year, when active fixed income ETFs had net inflows of $19 billion vs. $279 billion for passive bond ETFs.  

Two major factors behind this development are an increase in uncertainty about the economy and monetary policy and yields above 5% for some of the most popular offerings. According to Ryan Murphy, the head of fixed income business development at Capital Group, this is the beginning of “a longer multi-quarter and potentially multi-year trend out of cash. Investors are getting the best compensation on fixed income in 20 years.” 

Flows could accelerate into bond funds as there is $6 trillion in money market funds once the Fed actually starts cutting rates. Yet, the current ‘wait and see’ period is challenging for fixed-income investors, but it’s an opportune moment for active strategies given opportunities to find distortions in prices and credit quality. Stephen Bartolini, portfolio manager at T. Rowe, notes, “The ability to not just blindly buy the index but be smarter and choose around security selection is critical at the moment.” 

Finsum: Active fixed income inflows were greater than inflows into passive fixed income ETFs. It’s a result of attractive yields and heightened uncertainty about the economy and monetary policy.    

A major milestone occurred at the end of 2023 as assets in index funds exceeded assets held by active funds. The major factor behind this shift is an increasing preference for ETFs, while mutual funds are falling out of favor. While there has been much focus on the impressive growth rates of active ETFs, the larger narrative is that ETFs are displacing mutual funds, both active and passive. 

According to Cerulli Associates, active ETFs had $129 billion of inflows last year, while there were $65 billion of inflows into passive mutual funds. In contrast, passive ETFs had inflows of $463 billion, while active mutual funds had net outflows of $576 billion.

A major factor is that ETFs have lower costs while also offering more transparency and liquidity. They are also more tax-efficient than their mutual fund counterparts. Additionally, many advisors are now focusing more on asset allocation than security selection, which is also contributing to growth of ETFs. 

Cerulli also noted that more advisors are moving to independent firms from large broker-dealers. “Those advisors, according to our data, believe less in the merits of active investing,” remarked Matt Apkarian, Cerulli’s associate director of product development.

Another trend is that some portion of outflows from active mutual funds are going into active ETFs. Some new issues in the category have been gaining traction, and more asset managers are jumping on the trend. 

Finsum: Last year, there were net inflows into active and passive ETFs and passive mutual funds. But there were huge outflows from passive mutual funds. A major factor is that ETFs are increasingly in favor due to lower costs and more transparency and liquidity.

One of the most important decisions that retirees will make is their Social Security claiming date. It’s only made once, and it will have long-term repercussions. Therefore, it’s crucial to make the best decision. 

There are single-premium, non-variable fixed or indexed annuities that are designed to offer retirees income at one level during the first benefit period and then at a different level during the second benefit period. 

This can help retirees push back their claiming date so that they can receive a higher level of benefits. The initially higher level of income can last up to 8 years. The median premium is $100,000, with an average of $155,000. 

These offerings have been popular with middle-income clients and even some wealthier clients, especially among workers in government jobs who can retire at earlier ages. Additionally, these products are also amenable to investors with less tolerance for risk who value steady income over asset appreciation. One obstacle to greater adoption of these types of annuities is that it’s challenging for advisors and agents to explain the benefits of pushing back the Social Security claiming date. 

Finsum: Annuities can help retirees by pushing back their Social Security claiming date. One annuity product is increasingly popular as it comes with a higher level of income in the upfront years to help bridge the gap.

Alternative energy stocks have had a poor start to the year as the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) is down 15% YTD. A major component of the industry’s struggle is the poor performance of Tesla, which has been dealing with slowing sales and falling margins. Last week, the company announced that it would be restructuring and laying off 10% of its workforce. In the first quarter, the company had its first decline in vehicle deliveries, from 422,875 in last year’s Q1 to 386,810 this year.

Another is that overvalued parts of the market have moved lower as it’s increasingly clear that rates will remain elevated in the near term. Higher rates have a negative impact on auto sales and result in higher financing costs for green energy projects, leading to fewer installations. 

The larger story is that the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and clean energy from fossil fuels and internal combustion engines is simply taking longer than expected.  EV demand growth seems to have stalled despite optimistic forecasts from many organizations that demand would steadily increase over the next decade. Meanwhile, the supply of EVs is set to meaningfully increase in the coming years. 

Finsum: Alternative energy stocks have been a laggard so far this year. Two of the major reasons are slowing demand for EVs and higher interest rates.