Bonds: Total Market
Stocks and bonds have been weaker since Wednesday’s stronger than expected inflation report. While some on Wall Street are now questioning whether the Fed will be able to cut rates at all, Rick Rieder, Blackrock’s head of fixed income, continues to see rate cuts later in the year.
He notes that Thursday’s PPI report was softer than expected and an indication that most inflation is contained in the services sector. He doesn’t believe that monetary policy could have too much impact on this type of inflation and that it would have damaging effects on other parts of the economy. Overall, he sees recent data consistent with core PCE at 2.6-2.7%.
He believes the current data justifies between one and two rate cuts before year-end. However, he believes that the data could still evolve in a way that justifies more. With rates above 5% and core PCE below 3%, monetary policy is very restrictive, so he believes the Fed will lower rates regardless.
In terms of fixed income, Rieder is bullish on short-duration notes, as investors can get yields between 6% and 7%. He sees the 10-year Treasury yield modestly declining into year-end due to softer economic data and the Fed cutting rates. However, longer-term, he believes that it is range-bound between 4% and 5%.
Finsum: Many on Wall Street are starting to turn more pessimistic about the Fed’s ability to cut rates given recent inflation data. Blackrock’s Rick Rieder still sees cuts later in the year, even if the data doesn’t significantly improve.
In 2001, Vanguard pioneered a novel method for integrating ETFs as a share class within existing mutual funds, propelling the company to prominence in the ETF market. However, this competitive edge dissipated when the patent lapsed in May 2023, prompting a frenzied quest within the fund industry to secure regulatory approval for Vanguard’s ETF share class innovation.
Noteworthy industry players, including Fidelity, Dimensional Fund Advisors, and Morgan Stanley, have vigorously advocated their positions to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), joined by a myriad of smaller asset managers, propelled by factors such as immediate scalability, established track records, and structurally superior offerings.
Despite prior reservations expressed by the SEC regarding ETFs constructed as a share class of multi-class funds, the industry's push for ETF rule revisions has gathered steam, prompting the active involvement of leading stock exchanges. Analysts anticipate substantial market shifts with any SEC endorsement allowing fund companies to adopt Vanguard's ETF structure.
Finsum: The landscape of for ETFs is changing quickly and the race to the bottom, but regulation will be critical.
According to the study, nearly two-thirds of financial advisors state that they are primarily influenced by factors within their own practice when constructing portfolios. Conversely, these advisors are less likely to take input from their broker dealer (B/D) or custodian. The divergences between advisor channels pose challenges for asset managers in establishing their products and services effectively.
Cerulli suggests that asset managers concentrate their distribution efforts on channels where advisors rely more on internal portfolio construction methods. Furthermore, the research highlights that advisors within the independent registered investment advisor (RIA) channel tend to construct portfolios internally, followed closely by hybrid RIAs.
Asset managers who allocate distribution resources towards channels such as independent and hybrid RIAs, where advisors tend to make their own investment selections, may have an advantage in portfolio construction.
Finsum: Independent RIAs help meet their clients’ needs with better portfolios.
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A financial advisor survey by Capital Group reveals a surprising lack of understanding about active fixed-income ETFs. Despite growing demand, less than 4% of assets are allocated to them, with limited advisor confidence in using them.
Surveyors highlight the benefits of active fixed-income ETFs, including consistent returns, portfolio diversification, and potentially lower fees. This knowledge gap, especially among wirehouse advisors, may be due to their recent introduction.
Younger advisors seem more receptive, suggesting wider adoption as awareness grows. Capital Group believes active fixed-income ETFs will bridge the gap with passive options, urging advisors to prepare for client interest.
Finsum: Macro climates like the current one almost always give bond pickers and edge, and advisors are missing alpha.
Treasury yields jumped higher following the hotter than expected March CPI report. The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.5%. It has now retraced more than 50% of its decline from its previous high in late October above 5%, which took it to a low of 3.8% in late December, when dovish hopes of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed peaked.
Clearly, recent labor market and inflation data have not been consistent with this narrative. In March, prices rose by 3.5% annually and 0.4% monthly, above expectations of a 3.4% annual increase and 0.3% monthly gain. Core CPI also came in above expectations.
Instead of trending lower, inflation is accelerating. Now, some believe that the Fed may not be able to cut rates given the stickiness of inflation. Additionally, economic data remains robust, which also means the Fed can be patient before it actually starts lowering the policy rate.
Some of the major contributors to the inflation report were shelter and energy costs. Both were up 0.4% and 2.2% on a monthly basis and 5.7% and 2.7% on an annual basis. Shelter, in particular, is interesting because its expected deceleration was central to the thesis that falling inflation falling would compel the Fed to cut.
Finsum: The March CPI came in stronger than expected, leading to an increase in Treasury yields. As a result, we are seeing increasing chatter that the Fed may not cut at all.
Following the better than expected March jobs report showing a gain of 303,000 jobs, Treasury yields moved higher across the curve. The 10-year yield initially rose 14 basis points to a new 2024 high of 4.43% before backing off a bit. Overall, the jobs report reduces the urgency of the Federal Reserve to cut rates given the labor market’s resilience.
Going into the report, consensus expectations were for an increase of 200,000 jobs, which would be a softening from the 270,000 jobs added in February. It adds to the data showing inflation moving sideways rather than lower over the past couple of months.
Yields also rose on Thursday following comments from Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, questioning the likelihood of rate cuts if inflation continues to linger above 2%. As a result, the odds of the Fed not cutting rates at the May and June meetings have increased.
Some other positives from the report were the unemployment rate declining to 3.8%, despite an increase in the labor force participation rate to 62.7%. Average hourly wages increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 4.1% annually. Both figures were in line with expectations. Job gains were strong across the board, with the biggest contributors being healthcare, government, leisure and hospitality, and construction.
Finsum: Treasury yields moved higher following a stronger than expected March jobs report. Overall, the report led to a decrease in the odds of a rate cut at upcoming Fed meetings.