Displaying items by tag: Trump

Morgan Stanley has revised its U.S. economic outlook, predicting weaker growth and higher inflation due to escalating trade policies. The bank now expects GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, lowering its prior estimates of 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively.

Inflation forecasts have also risen, with headline PCE inflation projected at 2.5% by December, up from 2.3%, while core inflation is seen hitting 2.7% instead of 2.5%. Despite fluctuating trade policies with key partners, tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, with China vowing retaliation.

These adjustments follow President Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, reversing an earlier move to impose duties over concerns about drug trafficking and migration.

Finsum: Restrictive trade and immigration policies could weigh on economic growth, reinforcing their view of "slower growth, firmer inflation."

After years of low volatility, foreign exchange trading is roaring back to life. The currency desk, once overshadowed by stocks and bonds, is thriving as global interest rate policies diverge and trade tensions resurface. 

Optiver’s FX volumes have doubled since 2024, prompting a shift to 24-hour operations, with new hires and strategic relocations to meet surging demand. Banks are also rebuilding their currency trading teams, recruiting veterans from the 2008 financial crisis alongside fresh talent eager to navigate the revived market turbulence. 

Hedge funds are fueling the momentum, with record-breaking activity in Asian currencies and a renewed belief that FX can add real value to portfolios. 

Finsum: Whether this marks a long-term shift remains uncertain, but for now, the “sleeping giant” of foreign exchange has undeniably awakened.

The municipal bond market experienced fluctuations in 2024, with tax-free yields rising in response to Treasury yield movements, particularly in the latter half of the year. Market uncertainty increased following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, which coincided with ongoing inflation concerns and economic crosscurrents. 

As 2025 begins, the potential extension of 2017 tax cuts under the new administration may impact demand for tax-free bonds, particularly if corporate tax rates are lowered. Climate-related risks, such as the LA fires and hurricanes, have drawn attention to municipal finance, with increased insurance costs and resilience measures potentially leading to more bond issuance. 

Despite these pressures, municipal credit quality remains stable, supported by strong reserves, prudent budget management, and infrastructure reinvestment. However, challenges persist in certain sectors, including healthcare, higher education, and public K-12 schools, due to shifting demographics, rising costs, and expiring pandemic aid.

Finsum: These are important things to monitor for municipal bonds, and the increasing role of DOGE, could drastically change this bond segment. 

Former President Donald Trump’s newly announced sovereign wealth fund has sparked speculation that it may include Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Given his administration’s support for digital assets, experts believe this fund could serve as a vehicle to invest in crypto without bureaucratic hurdles. 

Some argue that incorporating Bitcoin and other digital assets could bolster the U.S. economy while positioning the country as a leader in the crypto sector. However, skeptics highlight the risks of volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and governance challenges tied to managing crypto within a government-backed investment fund. 

Other nations, including Norway, already have exposure to Bitcoin through their sovereign wealth funds, further fueling debate over the potential impact of the U.S. following suit. 

Finsum: If implemented, this move could accelerate institutional adoption of crypto while reinforcing America’s role in the evolving digital asset landscape.

Gold prices surged to an all-time high as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating U.S. tariff concerns. Spot gold climbed 1.3% to $2,794.42 per ounce, briefly touching $2,798.24, while U.S. gold futures settled 1.8% higher at $2,845.20. 

Market uncertainty grew following White House plans to impose steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with potential levies on China also under consideration. A weaker U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields further bolstered gold’s appeal to investors. 

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, signaling no urgency for further cuts despite slowing economic growth. Traders now await the upcoming inflation report for insights into future monetary policy.

Finsum: We will see some wild moves in commodities prices in the coming weeks given the retaliation already spiking in the trade wars.