Displaying items by tag: Trump

(Washington)

Trump won his impeachment trial and his approval rating is higher than before it. But as we wind towards the election in November, an Achilles heel might be appearing for Trump. That weakness is that many of the states who supported him—indeed those that actually sealed his victory—are actually doing worse economically than they were when they elected him. In other words, the spoils of the current economy have not flowed into much of Trump country. This is especially true across the rust belt states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan. All of those states can turn Democratic in any presidential year (some are reliably Democratic)—swing states.

FINSUM: This could be Trump’s weakness in the election—that the blue collar boom he references might not have reached enough of the critical part of his base.

(New York)

Donald Trump wasted no time in highlighting Democrats’ big debacle in the Iowa Caucus. And interestingly, markets wasted no time in jumping on news of the issues in Iowa. In particular, bank stocks jumped across the board (from JPM to BAC and beyond) on news of the reporting issue in Iowa. Investors think a Trump re-election will be better for markets, and bank stocks are particularly sensitive as the current president is viewed as much more favorable to financial companies.

FINSUM: If Bernie ends up winning the Caucus, expect markets to take a little hit, as he (or Warren) will be the exact opposite of “good” for bank stocks.

(Washington)

Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, the ongoing “reporting issue” with the Iowa Caucus is highly embarrassing. Democrats were unable to report a winner after voting closed last night because of irregularities in reporting. The party’s new app, which voters and reporting areas used, did not fail. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies and reporting issues (e.g. phone lines were down). Candidates were unable to comment on their success or failure, save Pete Buttigieg, who declared victory.

FINSUM: Trump jumped all over this, as one would expect. It does not look good for Democratic competence to have a big screw-up on their first trip out of the gate in 2020.

(Washington)

The Iowa caucus kicks off today and do not be surprised if market get blindsided by the results. Bernie Sanders holds a solid lead in Iowa and he is likely to win the day in the state. That said, markets have been dismissive of Bernie for a long time, and it seems quietly realistic that despite all the predictions of him winning, him actually doing so might spook investors.

FINSUM: We would not be surprised at all if we saw a mini “Bernie correction” when Iowa results come out.

(Washington)

New polls are out and Sanders is at least tied with Biden. He has been reported as ahead recently, but a flurry of recent polls have all confirmed that he is at least tied. This could be a major issue for the stock market, as Wall Street is wary of Bernie. While they revile Warren, they understand her thinking and respect her regulatory acumen. Bernie is seen as a wildcard. It makes sense then that for each 10-point rise Sanders has seen in the polls, the S&P 500 has dropped 1% based on a rolling two-week relationship, according to UBS.

FINSUM: We would have to agree with this assessment. If Sanders wins the bid, the market will probably have a little blip, and then any polls that show Sanders ahead of Trump would be very worrying for markets.