The July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 73,000, with major downward revisions to previous months, signaling that the U.S. economy may be slowing more sharply than expected. This has fueled recession concerns, especially as three-month average job gains dropped to just 35,000 and consumer spending, the key driver of GDP, remains tepid. 

Economists point to Trump-era tariffs and weakening labor market data as contributing factors, with some suggesting we may be on the brink of a recession, though GDP still rose 3% in Q2 due to import timing. 

Market reactions were swift: the Fed is now widely expected to cut rates in September, while stocks wavered amid political backlash and uncertain economic signals. Despite the White House expressing confidence, housing and manufacturing data continue to falter, and experts warn of potential consumer pullback. 

Finsum: While some remain optimistic about a soft landing, the outlook is increasingly clouded by high inflation, policy risk, and weakening employment trends.