Displaying items by tag: fixed income

Thursday, 28 March 2024 06:19

The Bond ETFs Offering an Efficiency Advantage

In today's interest rate climate, holding a significant cash reserve is a prudent strategy. While long-term investors may benefit from stock investments, individuals requiring immediate access to funds or building emergency savings find value in holding cash. With high-yield savings accounts offering rates of 5% or more, real returns on cash savings are attractive. However, for those seeking to optimize returns while maintaining liquidity, there are two fixed income ETFs that offer advantages. 

Two ETFs, iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and JPMorgan Ultra-Short Municipal Income ETF (JMST), offer different tax strategies to potentially enhance after-tax returns without significant additional risk.

Short-term Treasury bonds provide state tax exemption on interest earnings, making them appealing for residents of high-tax states, while municipal bonds offer federal tax exemption and may also be exempt from state and local taxes. Investors should assess the trade-offs between tax advantages and lower yields to determine the best fit for their financial situation.


Finsum; When accounting for tax advantages, fixed income ETFs could provide a more secure and efficient outlet for mitigating risk. 

Published in Bonds: Total Market

2024 has proven to be a much more challenging year for financial markets than 2023. Entering the year, the consensus was that the economy would continue to weaken, inflation would keep trending lower, and the Fed would be proactive and aggressive in cutting rates. 

Clearly, this has not happened. Amid this new paradigm, allocators are understandably looking to make appropriate adjustments to portfolios. Here’s why they should consider increasing exposure to active strategies.  

With fixed income, active investing can allow for precise exposure to a specific theme. For instance, those who don’t believe that inflation will keep trending lower may want to have higher exposure to short-duration debt. Another benefit is that active managers are able to quickly change strategies depending on how events develop, which makes them particularly useful in the current environment. This means that holdings can be optimized for the current environment of ‘higher for longer, but then managers can quickly pivot once the Fed actually starts cutting rates.

Active strategies can also be useful in other asset classes, such as international equities, which currently appeal to many investors due to favorable valuations relative to US equities. With active management, there is more focus on bottom-up, fundamental-focused analysis, which can result in more alpha in less efficient markets. Further, it can also lead to more diversification and risk management than is typically found with passive investing.


Finsum: The first quarter of 2024 has had several unexpected developments. Here’s why allocators should consider active management to navigate this tricky environment. 

Published in Wealth Management
Tuesday, 26 March 2024 18:11

Bonds Slightly Higher Following FOMC Decision

Bonds and stocks were higher following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady. The rally was a result of Fed Chair Powell reaffirming that rate cuts were still on track for later this year. He also added that the ‘policy rate is likely at its peak’. 

The dot-plot also showed that FOMC members are forecasting 3 rate cuts by the end of the year, which is in line with the market’s consensus and a reduction from their previous forecast of 4 rate cuts. Committee members also upped their forecast for GDP growth to 2.1% from 1.4%, while modestly lowering their forecast for the unemployment rate to below 4%. 

According to Fed futures, there is a 75% chance that the first rate cut will be at the June meeting. However, the larger message from Powell is that the Fed can afford to be patient given that the economy remains in a healthy place despite restrictive monetary conditions. 

Another catalyst for equities and fixed income was Powell’s comments on the balance sheet runoff. So far, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by about $1.4 trillion since June 2022 by letting proceeds from maturing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities roll off the balance sheet instead of being reinvested. Powell indicated that this round of quantitative tightening was nearing an end and that discussions were ongoing about when it would be ‘appropriate to slow the pace of the runoff fairly soon’.


Finsum: Stocks and bonds were higher following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Two particular catalysts were Chair Powell’s affirmation that the Fed’s next move would be to cut rates and comments about slowing the pace of quantitative tightening.  

Published in Bonds: Total Market
Friday, 15 March 2024 04:04

Bonds Weaken Following February CPI Data

Bond yields modestly rose following the February consumer price index (CPI) report which came in slightly hotter than expected. Overall, it confirms the status quo of the Fed continuing to hold rates ‘higher for longer’. Yields on the 10-year Treasury rose by 5.1 basis points to close at 4.16%, while the 2-Year note yield was up 5 basis points to close at 4.58%. 

 

The report showed that the CPI rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.2% annually. Economists were looking for a 0.4% monthly increase and 3.1% annual. While the headline figure was mostly in-line with expectations, Core CPI was hotter than expected at 3.8% vs 3.6% and 0.4% vs 0.3%. The largest contributors were energy which was up 2.6% and shelter at 0.4% which comprised 60% of the gain.

 

Based on recent comments by Chair Powell and other FOMC members, the Fed is unlikely to begin cutting unless inflation resumes dropping or there are signs of the labor market starting to crack. Current probabilities indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady at the upcoming FOMC meeting, especially with no major economic data expected that could shift their thinking. 


 

Finsum: The February jobs report resulted in a slight rally for bonds as it increased the odds of a rate cut in June. Most strength was concentrated on the short-end of the curve.

 

Published in Bonds: Total Market

While the Federal Reserve has been successful in lowering inflation over the past 21 months, it still remains uncomfortably high. The consumer price index (CPI) peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and reached 3.1% in its last reading which remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

 

Equally relevant, many of the disinflationary impulses which drove the rate of inflation lower have subsided, while there are indications of nascent inflationary pressures budding. For markets, the implication is that the status quo prevails with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 5.50% since July of last year.

 

While bonds enjoyed a decent rally as the Fed moved from hiking to holding steady, volatility remains elevated due to the current uncertainty about inflation and Fed policy. As a result, the bulk of gains in fixed income proved to be fleeting. According to John Hanock, these conditions are ideal for active fixed income as managers will be able to take advantage of inefficiencies and dislocations caused by the current environment.

 

The firm believes that active managers will be able to outperform by overweighting quality, intermediate-term bonds, and defensive sectors. It also likes mortgage-backed securities (MBS) due to attractive yields without sacrificing quality. In contrast, it wants to underweight cyclical sectors and high-yield bonds given its concerns about a weakening economy in the second-half of the year. 


Finsum: Volatility has risen for fixed income ever since the outlook for inflation and Fed policy have gotten murkier. Here’s why John Hancock believes active fixed income is the ideal way for investors to take advantage of attractive yields. 

 

Published in Bonds: Total Market
Page 1 of 71

Contact Us

Newsletter

Subscribe

Subscribe to our daily newsletter

Top
We use cookies to improve our website. By continuing to use this website, you are giving consent to cookies being used. More details…