Displaying items by tag: Trump

Tuesday, 24 March 2020 12:35

Trump May End the Lockdown in Six Days

(Washington)

President Trump is changing his view on coronavirus. When the virus first started sweeping the world, he maintained a cavalier attitude. He then pivoted to be very focused and concerned about protecting against the virus. Now he is moving back in the other direction, saying that at the end of the current 15-day lockdown, he is considering opening the economy back up, joining a chorus of business leaders who say that the “cure cannot be worse than the virus itself”.


FINSUM: This is a difficult and risky decision—lives or livelihoods? However, Trump proceeds, it seems unlikely New York, California, and Washington, will take his lead.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Wednesday, 11 March 2020 15:44

Biden is the Presumptive Democratic Candidate

(Washington)

The “mini Super Tuesday” results are in from yesterday’s six primaries, and Joe Biden has taken an even more commanding lead. The biggest prize he won yesterday was Michigan, giving him a very strong lead heading into next week’s primaries, which includes Florida. He is almost untouchable at the point, but a win in Florida—which is forecasted—would make his advantage insurmountable.


FINSUM: Two thoughts here. Firstly, Sanders is the most successful non-winning candidate ever. He changed the party and galvanized the center, which ultimately led to his losing, but transformed the vision of the party. Secondly, Biden is more dangerous for Trump. He has the right middle-of-the-road policies and demeanor to attract moderates and those whose eyes might be wavering from the president.

Published in Politics

(Washington)

Bernie Sanders’ 2020 bid for the presidency is starting to take on some very familiar patterns. In particular, his campaign is starting to look a lot like his rival Donald Trump’s campaign from 2016. Consider that Bernie is largely a party outsider who has widely been shunned by the Democratic mainstream. On paper his rivals seem more electable, but as they squabble with each other he has built grass roots momentum and taken some of the biggest early election events. Even as he rises, those in his own party worry about his actually winning the bid.


FINSUM: It is eerily familiar. Will it be a similar outcome?

Published in Politics
Wednesday, 12 February 2020 08:23

Trump’s Achilles Heel in the Election

(Washington)

Trump won his impeachment trial and his approval rating is higher than before it. But as we wind towards the election in November, an Achilles heel might be appearing for Trump. That weakness is that many of the states who supported him—indeed those that actually sealed his victory—are actually doing worse economically than they were when they elected him. In other words, the spoils of the current economy have not flowed into much of Trump country. This is especially true across the rust belt states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan. All of those states can turn Democratic in any presidential year (some are reliably Democratic)—swing states.


FINSUM: This could be Trump’s weakness in the election—that the blue collar boom he references might not have reached enough of the critical part of his base.

Published in Politics
Tuesday, 04 February 2020 11:10

Markets Surge as Trump’s Election Chances Jump

(New York)

Donald Trump wasted no time in highlighting Democrats’ big debacle in the Iowa Caucus. And interestingly, markets wasted no time in jumping on news of the issues in Iowa. In particular, bank stocks jumped across the board (from JPM to BAC and beyond) on news of the reporting issue in Iowa. Investors think a Trump re-election will be better for markets, and bank stocks are particularly sensitive as the current president is viewed as much more favorable to financial companies.


FINSUM: If Bernie ends up winning the Caucus, expect markets to take a little hit, as he (or Warren) will be the exact opposite of “good” for bank stocks.

Published in Eq: Financials
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