Displaying items by tag: S&P 500

Monday, 14 December 2020 12:58

Why This Tech Winning Streak Means More to Come

(New York)

Tech shares have been doing very well recently. This has given rise to renewed fears of overvaluation and a market correction. In the ten days leading up to December 8th,the Nasdaq 100 jumped 5.3%. While this makes some nervous after a year of huge gains for tech, history tells us this likely means more gains are coming. There have only been 10 times ion history when the Nasdaq 100 went on a ten-day winning streak, and the average gain in the year following was 19%.


FINSUM: The point here is that even if value stocks do well—which they have been as the economic outlook has brightened—tech stocks don’t look bearish by any means.

Published in Eq: Tech
Tuesday, 08 December 2020 13:06

Huge Valuations are Making Investors Uneasy

(New York)

Starting with the huge gains of tech shares over the summer, and now the whole index, investors have grown increasingly uneasy with market valuations. By some metrics, markets are as stretched valuation-wise as they have ever been. Take for instance Robert Shiller’s famed CAPE ratio. As it stands now the S&P 500 has a CAPE valuation of 33.4x. That is the highest it has been since 1929 and almost double the long-term average of 17x. ”There are great expectations built into this market … We are in the seventh inning of Federal Reserve-supported equity markets”, says the CIO of CIBC Private Wealth Management.


FINSUM: As scary as the valuations are, they are not entirely irrational given the level of stimulus and the way the economy has held up.

Published in Eq: Value
Wednesday, 02 December 2020 09:38

Big Banks Say the S&P 500 Will Surge in 2021

(New York)

One of the big annual market traditions has begun: banks and their analysts put of their year-ahead forecasts. This year has seen a wide range of forecasts, but one thing is becoming apparent—analysts are bullish, and more so than usual. Jefferies has the most aggressive forecast, saying the S&P 500 will close 2021 at 4,250; it is at 3,662 now. Analysts are bullish because of the coming vaccine and central banks which will continue to be accommodative. However, Barclays adds a third consideration—that the economy is doing much better than anyone thought it would be at this point. According to Barclays “with central banks set to remain accommodative for several years, a likely drop in global trade tensions, and unappetizing fixed income returns, we remain overweight risk assets over core bonds”.


FINSUM: Yes valuations are high, but given the overall economic position the US is in (including the vaccine), it is hard not to be optimistic.

Published in Eq: Large Cap

(New York)

Make no mistake, in the long run Morgan Stanley is bullish. The problem is that the short-term does not look so bright, according to the bank. While MS raised their S&P 500 target for 2021 to 3,900 (well above today’s 3,350 level), they think the market might be rough in the near term. Citing “the second wave of virus, remaining election uncertainties and the specter of higher rates”, the bank says prices will swing from as low as 3,150 to 3,550 in the short-term. According to Morgan Stanley, “Once sentiment turns from euphoric bullishness, reality will strike and we expect to see the S&P 500 begin to feel the pressure”.


FINSUM: The bank says that without the vaccine news, the market would have fallen 5% already and they basically think that fall is due at any moment.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Friday, 13 November 2020 08:29

Goldman Says a Big S&P 500 Jump is Coming

(New York)

The market has been doing very well since October 30th, up around 9%. Goldman thinks even bigger gains are coming for the S&P 500. The bank has been encouraged by investors’ response after the election and thinks that the vaccine is really in the driver’s seat. The bank’s research team has significantly upgraded their earnings forecasts for next year and 2022 based on the better-than-expected recovery. According to Barron’s, a few assumptions underpin Goldman’s outlook, “at least one vaccine becoming widely available in the U.S., less drastic changes in policy because Congress is most likely to be divided, and the continued V-shaped economic recovery”. Goldman’s official forecast for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 is 4,300 and a 20% gain from now through the end of 2021.


FINSUM: The “continued v-shaped recovery” is the most volatile aspect of these assumptions, but they also discounted a potentially positive one—another stimulus package. The forecast seems reasonable.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
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