The chances for a Donald Trump impeachment appear to be rising quickly. Trump is caught in the middle of a fire storm over his administration’s ties to Russia, and suspicion over his firing of Comey, his requests to the FBI, and his sharing of secrets with Russia has been surging. Now a special independent counsel—former FBI head Robert Mueller—has been hired by the attorney-general to investigate Trump. The chances for an impeachment seem reasonable, even though the legal case against Trump for obstructing justice is unclear. The odds for whether he will be impeached depend on shifting political sentiment, because such a process is political rather than legal. The Senate requires a two-thirds majority to impeach a president. No president has ever been fully impeached.
FINSUM: We think the odds of impeachment will depend on where the investigation leads. As it stands right now, we think there is little chance for impeachment, but if ever deeper ties to Russia emerge, thus making Trump’s actions with the FBI appear worse and worse, then impeachment we will be increasingly likely. Markets could react strongly.