Displaying items by tag: tariffs

(Washington)

You know that Mercedes or BMW you have sitting in your driveway? Kiss it goodbye, maybe. In a move that seems likely to cause as much consternation at home as abroad, President Trump is planning a broad ban on German luxury cars. Trump’s proposals have ranged from a 25% tariff on German cars (extremely heavy) to outright bans. He reportedly told French leader Emmanuel Macron that he would maintain his trade policy until “no Mercedes models rolled on Fifth Avenue in New York”.

FINSUM: BMW alone makes $8-9 bn in annual revenue from sales of cars in the US. If Trump wanted to start a bitter trade war, this would be a good first step. Americans aren’t going to like this one either.

(Detroit)

Just when it seemed like trade war ambitions were over for the White House, they are rearing their head again. President Trump has ordered the US Commerce Department to investigate whether the extensive use of foreign parts in the US auto industry is a threat to national security. The mandate he is using for doing so—Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, is the same as he used for his tariffs on aluminum and steel last year.

FINSUM: While we do understand the national security considerations, this could hurt both the car industry (because of increased costs) and spark retaliations from trading partners.

(Washington)

In what should give investors a huge sigh of relief, President Trump has called off a trade war with China. The White House has called off the aggressive approach in light of China’s statement that it would try to increase US agricultural imports there. Trump says it would be good for US farmers, who were threatened with becoming a casualty in a trade war. Democrats are criticizing the president for cutting a deal too easily.

FINSUM: We do think the US has gotten the raw end of many trade deals (not that it did not play a large part in undermining itself), but trying to throw its weight around with China was a risky strategy.

(Washington)

For all intents and purposes, the US government has just declared a trade war on China. Rightly or wrongly, President Trump’s list of demands for China to undertake on trade are so onerous that it is impossible they will acquiesce. The US seems to know this, but is drawing a line in the sand. Here is an example of the scope of the demands: “China is to reduce the US-China trade imbalance by $100bn in the 12 months beginning June 1 2018, and by another $100bn in the 12 months beginning June 1 2019”.

FINSUM: We have very mixed views about the new US protectionist approach. On the one hand we do feel the US has gotten the short straw on several trade deals, but on the other, we think this standoffishness could possibly damage the US economy (short-term), or worse, cause a geopolitical conflict.

(Washington)

One of the world’s most respected economists has explained something all investors need to hear—why a trade war with China is impossible to avoid. Stiglitz says that so long as the US does not accept China’s right to develop its economy, there will be no meaningful agreement. Because of the path China is on, and the US’ position—led by Trump—no durable trade deal can be achieved. Fundamentally, the US does not accept that China is a “developing country”, rather it sees it as a large and mature nation, and this conflict will keep any serious deal from getting done.

FINSUM: There may be a short-term deal to save public face, but the US and China seemed destined to square off on trade for the foreseeable future.