Displaying items by tag: China

(Washington)

In what should give investors a huge sigh of relief, President Trump has called off a trade war with China. The White House has called off the aggressive approach in light of China’s statement that it would try to increase US agricultural imports there. Trump says it would be good for US farmers, who were threatened with becoming a casualty in a trade war. Democrats are criticizing the president for cutting a deal too easily.

FINSUM: We do think the US has gotten the raw end of many trade deals (not that it did not play a large part in undermining itself), but trying to throw its weight around with China was a risky strategy.

(Washington)

For all intents and purposes, the US government has just declared a trade war on China. Rightly or wrongly, President Trump’s list of demands for China to undertake on trade are so onerous that it is impossible they will acquiesce. The US seems to know this, but is drawing a line in the sand. Here is an example of the scope of the demands: “China is to reduce the US-China trade imbalance by $100bn in the 12 months beginning June 1 2018, and by another $100bn in the 12 months beginning June 1 2019”.

FINSUM: We have very mixed views about the new US protectionist approach. On the one hand we do feel the US has gotten the short straw on several trade deals, but on the other, we think this standoffishness could possibly damage the US economy (short-term), or worse, cause a geopolitical conflict.

(Washington)

Over the last several weeks, the market has gone through various fits of panic over whether a global trade war, sparked by the US, might imperil the global economy. However, over that period, sentiment has generally improved, with most investors now thinking a trade war unlikely. That view may be far off the mark, as two major disagreements are worsening. The first is between the US and Europe, on whom Trump may impose additionally steel tariffs imminently. Europeans have vowed to retaliate. With China, the situation is eve more worrisome, as the country has refused to even respond to Trump’s requests tha it slash $100 bn from its trade surplus with the US and lessen its backing for industrial upgrades.

FINSUM: China seems to feel it is finally big enough to stand up to the US. It is probably correct, which means we may end up in a big standoff with Beijing. Here is the big question though—will that ultimately (e.g. 3-plus years from now) be bad for the US economy?

(Washington)

One of the world’s most respected economists has explained something all investors need to hear—why a trade war with China is impossible to avoid. Stiglitz says that so long as the US does not accept China’s right to develop its economy, there will be no meaningful agreement. Because of the path China is on, and the US’ position—led by Trump—no durable trade deal can be achieved. Fundamentally, the US does not accept that China is a “developing country”, rather it sees it as a large and mature nation, and this conflict will keep any serious deal from getting done.

FINSUM: There may be a short-term deal to save public face, but the US and China seemed destined to square off on trade for the foreseeable future.

(Beijing)

The US and China are currently in a hot-under-the-collar spat over trade. Each side is proposing to raise tariffs in response to the other, and there is no end in sight. Well, China may be changing gears and adding a new weapon—Yuan devaluation. Beijing is reportedly exploring how to use devaluation as a tool in a trade war. Weakening the Yuan would make Chinese goods cheaper to buy overseas and could be a tool to boost exports. At the same time, it makes it harder for Chinese companies to buy overseas goods.

FINSUM: While on paper it sounds promising, intentionally weakening the currency would give weight to claims (most loudly by Trump) that China is a currency manipulator, which could turn favor against Beijing.