(Detroit)

The Wall Street Journal has published that we consider an important and engaging piece about the US auto industry and its disconnection with the direction of the rest of the world. While other major markets, like Europe and Asia, are moving to an ever-cleaner, ever-smaller, ever more electric paradigm, the US is moving further into the “bigger is better” mantra and cutting fuel standards. The disconnection has at its heart two components—the first is Trump’s very different view of climate change and environmental regulation, and the other is cheap gasoline.

FINSUM: We don’t think this disconnect is any cause for alarm in the near-term, but investors should consider that if political winds change (such as in the mid-term elections), then regulations could change quickly, leaving US automakers with a bad product mix.

(San Francisco)

Apple debuted its most important product in years just a few months ago—the iPhone X, but it may be closing in on what could not only be a great new product, but a new segment. That new device would be Apple’s version of the smart speaker business led by Amazon’s Echo and Google’s devices. Apple’s version is called the HomePod, and had its debut delayed from late last year to early this year, missing the holiday season. Of course, the device itself may be secondary the the digital personal assistant system, in Apple’s case Siri, as it is this bit of software which keeps users in the company’s ecosystem, which means higher spending.

FINSUM: The devices are merely vehicles for the digital assistants, which are in turn genius products for keeping consumers spending on services.

(Washington)

The SEC has just made an announcement that those in financial industry, and beyond, were waiting for. That announcement was that the SEC has now all but grounded all hopes of having bitcoin ETFs. There has been a remarkable amount of hype about the chances of launching bitcoin ETFs in the hope of getting more mainstream investors involved in the asset class. However, the SEC dashed those hopes, saying “Until the questions identified above can be addressed satisfactorily, we do not believe that it is appropriate for fund sponsors to initiate registration of funds that intend to invest substantially in cryptocurrency and related products”.

FINSUM: This was effectively an unsolicited warning not to try to shirk investor protection rules in efforts to create bitcoin ETFs. It looks like the SEC is taking a hard line here.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley’s wealth management can be described as nothing other than an unmitigated success in the fourth quarter. The numbers are in, and the data show that the unit is minting cash as the broker enjoys the transition from commission-based to fee-based accounts as provided by the fiduciary rule. Revenue increased a whopping 10% and the profit margin rose from under 10% the previous year to an eye-watering 26% in 2017.

FINSUM: We realize the importance of fiduciary duty, but how is a transition to much more expensive fee-based accounts—which are hugely boosting net profits to big firms—in the ultimate best interest of clients?

(New York)

Like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch is in the middle of a big bet on its wealth management unit The broker has decided to focus less resources on hiring senior advisors and more on training younger staff. Accordingly, its staff costs have shrunk despite growing its advisor base by 2%. By some accounts the early signs for the experiment are good, but it will take a long time to see how well it plays out.

FINSUM: The whole industry has a bit of an inheritance problem right now, since there are herds of baby boomer advisors who are set to retire in the coming years, and as yet, a dearth of young advisors to take their places.

(New York)

Most of the market’s panic over retail centers on the threat from Amazon and the shift to ecommerce from brick and mortar (admittedly related threats). However, there is more out there to be worried about than just those. In particular, the apparel market is not growing very quickly, as it is losing market share to other areas of consumer spending, such as restaurants, entertainment and wellness. Staffing costs are also rising at the same time as price pressure is growing, putting a strain on margins.

FINSUM: Amazon’s growth in apparel sales is also well-outpacing the overall industry’s growth rate, which means it is already stealing market share on top of these other challenges.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs has stuck to its guns with its trading division despite numerous changes to the industry and its competitors revamping. However, the bank finally appears to be changing its strategy. Since 2009, Goldman’s fixed income trading revenue has shrunk from over $23 bn in 2009, to just over $5 bn in 2017. Now the bank is changing its focus away from serving hedge fund clients, whom it has become overly reliant on, and towards big corporate clients, who offer a different sort of “flow” business based on interest swaps and other corporate needs.

FINSUM: We think it is smart for Goldman to diversify the focus on its fixed income unit. Especially since the $20bn plus revenue days don’t look like they are coming back.

(Houston)

Oil prices have done very well over the last several months. Prices have been rising at the pump, making producers happier and consumers less so. However, gloomier days may lay ahead. The IEA thinks US shale oil output may soon surge on the back of higher prices. If this happens, it would undue the supply reduction OPEC’s cuts have created and send the market downward. Additionally, it would likely lead to an unwind of OPEC’s cuts, as if they were maintained, the reductions would be disproportionately benefitting OPEC’s competitors.

FINSUM: Oil prices have been doing better, but that does not change the fact that world has a fundamental oversupply of oil. This is not a problem by any means, but is a factor that will weigh on prices for years to come.

(Los Angeles)

PIMCO says there is one really big thing to fear in markets above all else—the lack of fear. The current “melt up” is symptomatic of extreme investor confidence, and that is cause for grave concern, says PIMCO, one of the world’s largest money managers. According to PIMCO, “The fact that the fear is gone is the main reason why we should be worried”, continuing “That means most investors are now pretty fully invested and that means they will want to get out if the markets start to correct -- exacerbating the downdraft”.

FINSUM: We think PIMCO has a great point. The market’s start to this year is pretty insane—it is on track to triple in value in 2018. Is this the final run before a big downturn?

(New York)

There has been A LOT of talk lately about a bond bear market. The idea is that rates are now in a secular rising cycle led by a hawkish Fed and rising inflation. The issue with that view is two-fold. Firstly, the bond market “experts” calling for the bear market are well-served if it comes true because of the strategies they use. And secondly, there isn’t really evidence of much inflation and the Fed is not looking overly hawkish. The one really worrying thing is that the economy has been performing well, which does lend itself to rising rates and more money flowing into risk assets.

FINSUM: We think all these worries are premature. We have a new Fed chief coming in which now one is sure about, and there just isn’t much inflation. Plus, there are tens of millions of people retiring who will need income investments.