FINSUM
This is likely to be the hardest weekend ever for millions of small business owners around the country. The SBA ran out of money on Thursday after just 1.6 million business had loans been “approved”—the vast majority of which have not been paid, according to COVID Loan Tracker. There are 30 million small businesses in this country. Even discounting for shell companies, that means tens of millions of small businesses got nothing from the program and are now facing doom. Forbes estimates the program only funded 5% of small businesses in the country.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESSES BY FILLING OUT OUT THE COVID LOAN TRACKER SURVEY.
Congress needs to urgently refund the program to help these businesses, but it is also worth noting that there were vast discrepancies in those who received PPP money. “Those who had pre-existing credit relationships with banks did much better”, says Duncan MacDonald-Korth, cofounder of COVID Loan Tracker. “And ‘big’ small businesses are much more likely to have those credit relationships”, he continued. Accordingly, COVID Loan Tracker found that over 81% of those who received PPP had pre-existing lending relationships with small banks! That means the millions of small businesses who fund themselves by making more money than they spend were boxed out of this program.
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand where PPP and EIDL money is flowing. We are empowering the business community and journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
Small business owners around the country are scratching their heads amidst their broader panic about the news that the Paycheck Protection Program funding has run out. According to COVID Loan Tracker, which has tracked the applications of 15,000 small businesses totaling over $5 bn in PPP loans, only around 6% of companies have actually had loans deposited in their accounts. Many small businesses are wondering “where is the money?”, says COVID Loan Tracker co-founder Rita MacDonald-Korth.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE SURVEY
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
The two founders of the site report that they have had extensive communication with banks and lenders over the last ten days and the huge difference between “approved” loans and disbursed loans can be accounted for by the behavior of borrowers, the banks, and the SBA.
“The speed with which the PPP program was designed led to inherent flaws and misaligned interests that have caused huge bottlenecks in deploying funds to small businesses”, says Duncan MacDonald-Korth. According to MacDonald-Korth, the problem is that the poor initial guidelines for banks and the “first come first serve” nature of the program, made borrowers apply to many banks/lenders at once. Because of that “there was double to triple the volume of applications as actual businesses applying”. This caused an apparent cascade of issues.
Firstly, it compelled banks to submit applications to the SBA for approval before they were actually complete. Because banks get paid a 1-5% fee for processing the loan, they want to make sure they process it and not a competitor. Accordingly, with so many duplicate applications, it made sense for the banks to urgently submit applications to the SBA—in order to win approval versus other lenders—even if all the paperwork was not in order. The SBA, in turn, had to make sure it was not approving duplicate applications, so it had double check each application flowing in, slowing down the process. All of this leads to the situation we have today—money entirely exhausted, but the vast majority of it not paid out because banks are still getting the proper paperwork from borrowers.
It is now official, the Paycheck Protection Program has exhausted its entire $349 bn. The announcement came yesterday that all the money in the program has been “approved”. However, that announcement left small business owners in confusion, as data shows very little money has arrived. According to COVID Loan Tracker, less than 6% of small business owners say that they have actually received money.
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
Small business owners are having trouble reconciling the difference they see between the SBA’s numbers and the lack of money they see in their accounts. The SBA has done little to clear up the confusion, as they have not made actual loan disbursement data public. “Where is the money? That is what all small business owners are asking us. We are getting thousands of those emails a day.”, says Rita MacDonald-Korth, co-founder of COVID Loan Tracker.
(New York)
A famous contrarian fund manager, Alan Lancz, put out a very interesting quote today. He said that “The next 45 days may just become the most critical period in U.S. financial history”. He argues that the manner in which the US economy is reopened will dictate the direction of the next several years of the recovery. In his view, even the best case scenario is a U-shaped recovery where it will take a long time to get back to where we were. In his words, “The much talked about ‘V’ shaped recovery is no longer in the equation because of the unprecedented combination of negatives with this crisis”.
FINSUM: We can’t help but agree. This lockdown has lasted so long—and will likely continue for a while longer—that we can’t imagine we will be back to February 2020’s economic output level until 2022.
(Washington)
While many readers often accuse us of having one political persuasion or another (we get accused by both sides all the time!), we try to be pretty neutral about politics here at FINSUM. On this particular topic, we want to weigh in very clearly (even though we don’t, have a clear position). Earlier this week, the President said what was easily the most heartfelt, eloquent and “presidential” comment of his presidency, and given this topic, we think it is worth sharing. He said “I have it make the biggest decision of my life, and I only hope to god I get it right”. Well, his view was made more clear today, which is that he is favoring a quick reopening.
FINSUM: In our view, nobody knows the right answer to the question about balancing the risk to life versus the imperative of providing economic security. In many ways it is a catch-22. We think a really well-considered strategy is needed.
Earlier this week, the Small Business Administration released aggregate details about the amount of loans “approved” in each sector and each state for the Paycheck Protection Program. However, the document did very little to help business owners understand where their money is, says COVID Loan Tracker.
“Approved” has become a very vague term as it concerns the SBA. COVID Loan Tracker says it has received hundreds of emails from small business owners who say that they have received notices of “approval” but have then waited several days before receiving money, or still have not received it.
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
While the release of the data by the SBA does help gain insight into which sectors and states will ultimately receive money, the agency has been reticent to release the numbers of actual loan disbursement (i.e. money actually paid out). This figure would be much more illustrative of how the PPP loan program is proceeding.
For instance, the document does not lend any clarity to the percent of applications that have been paid. According to COVID Loan Tracker, that figure stands at just 5%, a far cry from the ~70% the SBA says has been “approved”. “Where is the money”, says one of COVID Loan Tracker’s founders, Duncan MacDonald-Korth.
(New York)
New data emerging today is for the first time showing the scale of the devastation that has occurred to the US economy. Industrial production fell 5.4% in March, the worst fall since 1946. Headline retails sales fell a whopping 8.7%. Both data points were worse than economists predicted.
FINSUM: What is really worrying here is that large parts of the US were not even shutdown until the very end of March. This means April’s numbers are likely to be a complete washout. Judging by indexes, this scared markets.
(San Francisco)
Apple just debuted a new phone model and they appear to have made a very wise decision. The company unveiled its new version of the iPhone SE, its lowest end model of the iPhone, for just $399, the same price as the original SE model in 2016. However, this phone is significantly beefed up, and Apple says its Bionic Chip is the “fastest chip in a smartphone”. The pricing, of course, comes at a time of major economic hardship for most Americans.
FINSUM: This is a wise play both from a revenue generation standpoint and a branding standpoint. It would be hard for most of the US to justify a $1,000+ upgrade right now.
https://www.covidloantracker.com/
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
Today the site is announcing an exciting new development—all stats will be available in real-time! Data on successful PPP loans and EIDL advances, as well as on all applications, will be live and in real-time on COVID Loan Tracker. This mean small business owners and the press can get live and updated information 24 hours per day.
Additionally, the new automated reporting will feature data visualization tools which help to understand how and where money is flowing, such as heat mapping states where the most money is flowing.
According to COVID Loan Tracker, big banks are not doing a good job getting money moving to those who have applied for PPP loans. In their latest update yesterday afternoon, with around 8,000 companies reporting around $3.5 bn of loans from all 50 states, the large majority are getting approved through small and regional banks. In fact, JP Morgan Chase seems to be the only bank getting any applications approved, as Wells Fargo and Bank of America are showing very few approvals on COVID Loan Tracker, with Citi showing none.
PLEASE HELP US HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
Small and regional banks have been leading the charge in approvals all over the country. This is reportedly because many small and regional banks were already set up to process SBA loans as part of their normal course of business before the COVID-19 outbreak. This means they were already familiar and connected to the E-Tran system being used to process the loans by the SBA.