(New York)

The whole market has been on recession watch mode lately. The Fed has gone seriously dovish and weak economic data seems to be emerging by the day. However, some good news, at last: US jobless data just clocked in at the lowest level in 50 years, showing that the labor market is still tight. The numbers were in contrast to economists’ estimates for higher claims. Claims have fallen this far recently, but been revised higher later.

FINSUM: This is good news but it may not be indicative of much as this data could be slightly behind the hiring numbers, which have been weak recently.

(New York)

The press has a complicated relationship with annuities. On the one hand, some investors love them and the relative predictability they offer, while on the other, there are loads of stories of abuse. That said, they still have utility for investors, and with that in mind, here is a list of some of the best across six different categories. For immediate income, Minnesota Life has some well rated products with good payouts. Penn Mutual Life and Lincoln National Life also have strong offerings. For deferred income annuities there are some other providers to check out, including Symetra Life, CUNA Mutual, Principal Financial, and Guardian Life.

FINSUM: Guaranteed income at certain life thresholds is a valuable proposition for clients, it is the irresponsible way in which they have sometimes been sold that raises issues. This article lists some good candidates.

(New York)

American investors generally don’t pay enough attention to merging markets. We have such a big economy and markets that investing abroad often feels foreign and unnecessary. However, the diversification benefits of doing so can be huge, and right now may be an excellent time, says Morgan Stanley. The bank’s lead emerging markets strategist, Ruchir Sharma, is changing tune. For the last decade he said US shares, and particularly tech, would outperform. Now the pendulum is swinging back, with EM likely to take the lead.

FINSUM: EMs have obviously been beat up over the last decade, so there is certainly value to be had. The big worry for us is about global trade policy and how that constrains EM growth.

(New York)

Investors are always looking for good yields. While bonds are seeing higher yields now, high paying stocks offer something special because of the chance of capital appreciation. Such investors might be tempted by financial stocks right now, which are sporting juicy yields. However, Goldman Sachs is warning that investors need to beware. JP Morgan and other banks have been beaten up over the last year and are sporting payouts of above 3% in some cases. However, the big risk that is financial stocks are highly rate sensitive and tend to lose value as rates fall because of their lower profitability in such times. This pushes up dividends, but moves prices lower.

FINSUM: If you think we are even close to heading into a recession, buying financials is not a good idea. If you think this is a false signal, then banks may be a great buying opportunity right now.

(New York)

We don’t want to say that we told you so, but we have been broadcasting that bond markets had overreacted to the Fed’s change of tune. This week, bond investors have started to correct themselves as yields on the ten-year have jumped considerably on better economic news. With that in mind, limiting rate risk on bond holdings has taken on renewed importance. Accordingly, where better to be that in short-term, less rate-sensitive, bond funds. For options here, take a look at the Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV), yielding 2.8%, and the PIMCO Enhance Short Maturity Active ETF (MINT), yielding almost 3%.

FINSUM: We think there could be some significant yield volatility in the next few months, and therefore feel it is best to stay rate hedged/defensive.