Displaying items by tag: precious metals

Gold futures spiked sharply above spot prices after reports suggested the U.S. would impose unexpected tariffs on 1 kg and 100 oz bars, a major disruption for Switzerland, the global refining hub. 

These bar sizes are central to U.S. trading, and the sudden policy shift triggered short-covering and a widening of the exchange-for-physical (EFP) spread, echoing past dislocations during COVID and earlier tariff fears. The turmoil has raised doubts about the reliability of New York futures markets for price discovery, as policy volatility increasingly distorts trading signals. 

Meanwhile, the December gold contract hit a record $3,534, but analysts caution that spot prices, not futures, reflect gold’s real value. A similar drama unfolded in copper markets, where a tariff scare caused prices to soar—only to collapse when Trump reversed course. 

Finssum: Heavy trader losses, bloated U.S. inventories, and mounting questions about the integrity of U.S. commodity pricing amid tariff uncertainty are the result.

Gold-backed ETFs saw their biggest first-half inflow since early 2020, as investors flocked to the metal amid global trade tensions and economic uncertainty. According to the World Gold Council, physically backed gold ETFs attracted $38 billion in inflows from January to June 2025, lifting total holdings by 397.1 metric tons to 3,615.9 tons. 

This surge was largely driven by concerns over U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. U.S.-listed funds led with 206.8 tons added, while Asia-listed ETFs set a regional record with 104.3 tons—accounting for 28% of global flows despite managing just 9% of global gold ETF assets. 

The rebound follows modest inflows in 2024 and reverses a three-year trend of outflows tied to high interest rates. Spot gold prices have surged 26% this year, reaching an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April.

Finsum: Gold ETFs are a great way to get exposure and get an inflation hedge in case tariffs cause a spike. 

So far in 2025, silver has climbed over 20%, breaking through $36 per ounce in early June for its highest price in 13 years, while gold has also soared, reaching a record $3,500 in April and gaining nearly 28% year to date. Both metals have attracted investors seeking safety amid global uncertainty, with gold up 47% from June 2024 to June 2025 and silver rising 23% in the same period. 

Analysts see reasons for silver to potentially outperform gold later this year, pointing to strong industrial demand, ongoing supply deficits, and its status as a leveraged monetary hedge. 

Bank of America forecasts silver reaching $40 and gold $4,000 by year-end, while other experts predict silver could even break $49 per ounce by 2025. However, risks remain, including a possible global recession reducing industrial demand, a stronger dollar, and the impact of high interest rates that could hurt all precious metals. 

Finsum: While gold’s rally might be priced in, silver’s combination of industrial and monetary appeal could help it close the gap in the coming months.

Despite intense geopolitical tension following U.S. and Iranian missile exchanges, gold prices have struggled to maintain momentum above $3,400 an ounce. Analysts attribute gold’s muted safe-haven response to the conflict’s regional containment and investor focus on broader market dynamics. 

UBS argues that gold’s value lies more in its role as a portfolio diversifier than a short-term geopolitical hedge, emphasizing its historical strength in times of uncertainty. According to the World Gold Council, central banks and portfolio managers rank gold highly for diversification, stability, and as a store of value—especially amid unpredictable U.S. policies under the Trump administration. 

UBS maintains a bullish $3,800 price target for gold, citing continued central bank and ETF demand, and also highlights high-yield corporate debt from gold miners as an underappreciated investment opportunity. 

Finsum: With mining companies showing strong balance sheets and free cash flow, M&A activity is expected to rise, offering investors alternative ways to gain from the sector’s resilience.

(New York)

Everyone jumped off the three-month gold rally last week after regional Fed President Jim Bullard spoke of tightening in response to the recent CPI releases. This erased over a month of gains in a week as the price sank from $1900 to nearly below $1780. However, the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index which tracks the average recommended gold exposure among a subset of short-term gold timers is at -9.7%. This contrarian take is that gold rallies when this index sinks. The typical threshold for this index is -14.8%, but the dramatic move could be enough to start to buy. This index is one of the key items to watch as the price of gold falls so that you don’t miss the rebound.

FINSUM: Additionally Powell made it very clear that inflation is transitory and Bullard is in the minority on the FOMC. The Fed won’t pull back the reins until inflation is above its long-term goal and persistent.