(New York)

Stocks are in an interesting place right now. They are at all-time highs, but at the very same time, there are fears over the economy and trade war. Bearishness seems to be at a peak alongside the market. So what does all of this mean? It means that this may be an ideal environment for the market to keep rising. For those who adhere to the idea that the market loves to climb a wall of worry, there is a perfect wall to climb right now. According to Bespoke Investment Group “When the public has viewed a new high in the market with skepticism (more bears than bulls), the S&P has seen gains over the next year every single time”.

FINSUM: We think the market outlook appears better than worse at the moment. Even if the economy continues to weaken, as long as it does so at a slow and predictable pace, we don’t think there will necessarily be a bear market.

(New York)

New US GDP data has been released and it is not good news. Though, it is isn’t exactly terrible either. US third quarter growth was 1.9%, the lowest level of 2019. The fall in pace was caused by a reduction in business investment. The pace of growth was 2.0% in the second quarter. The 1.9% rate actually exceeded estimates of 1.6% despite still being the weakest result of the year.

FINSUM: So the big question here is how the Fed will react to this news. They have generally had a glass-half-full approach, so this may keep them from proceeding with cuts, but we’d bet they undertake one more “insurance” cut.

(New York)

The market just hit fresh highs and we are making progress on the trade war; everything is good right? Wrong, says UBS. The bank has just put out an unusually bold warning, saying markets are likely headed for a big decline. Why? Earnings. Earnings growth forecasts for 2020 have tumbled from a peak of 23% to the just 1% now, a huge fall in expectations. That all comes as the growth backdrop for the economy is weakening, and signals that valuation multiples are likely to contract. “Every bear market of the past 50 years has witnessed an actual decline in S&P 500 forward earnings … Ultimately, the most vulnerable macro backdrop for equities occurs when forward earnings growth turns negative as LEIs are trending downward (pushing [price-to-earnings] lower)” says UBS.

FINSUM: An earnings bear market can easily turn into a real bear market, though it doesn’t always happen.

(New York)

Raymond James just reported earnings and alongside its figures, it also released its latest advisor numbers, and they were eye-popping. The firm has grown its advisor head count to over 8,000, up 198 since last September. Raymond James’ recent recruiting success seems to come down to two factors: big recruiting loans, and the fact that with Raymond James, advisors own the client. According to Raymond James CEO Paul Reilly, “I can’t remember seeing so many $5 million to $10 million [advisors] in the pipeline”.

FINSUM: Big recruiting payouts and letting advisors own the client is a pretty compelling (if expensive) way to recruit.