(New York)

If one thing is for sure about markets at the moment, it is that investors are less worried about the economy and less stressed about the chances of a bear market. That is exactly why the market is at risk. The market’s fear index, the VIX, jumped a whopping 16% yesterday, signaling some underlying anxiety building after a calm and positive stretch. One of the factors that is looming over markets is whether the tariff deadlines on China get delayed or not, which will be a sign of progress or failure on the trade deal. Further, fears over the election, and higher rates, are likely to dampen corporate spending and slow the economy.

FINSUM: Our worry is that the anxiety level at the moment does not seem to be matching the real risk, which ironically is when the chance of a market downturn is at its highest.

(New York)

One of the first big changes under new Goldman CEO David Solomon is becoming clear. That first major move is in wealth management, where Goldman is attempting to push much more broadly into the market. The bank plans to launch a robo advisor to get people with as little as $5,000 to invest to join its offering. Goldman has traditionally gone after very wealthy clients ($10m+), so this is a major change of pace for the the bank and is more in line with its recent increased focus on mass market savings products. A senior figure at Goldman explained “It’s a pipeline for future clients” to allow them to “experience the Goldman Sachs’ way”.

FINSUM: Goldman seems to believe it has stretched the high end of its market (big corps and UHNWIs) as far as it could go, and this is just the next logical area for growth. The challenge here is that we don’t think the Goldman name has the same cache with the mass market that it does with the HNW market.

(New York)

One of the big worries on small RIAs’ minds right now is whether Schwab is going to leave them out on an island to wither. Small RIAs have always been the bread and butter market for TD Ameritrade, but with its recent acquisition by Schwab, that could all change—such is the fear of the small independent shop. However, Schwab has taken a couple of moves that seem to indicate they are not going to forget about the group. In particular, they have hired Tom Bradley from TDA, who for years ran TDA’s RIA custody business, to lead the new combined effort.

FINSUM: There is still a good degree of doubt over whether Schwab will mainly focus on its institutional clients and large RIAs, but this is a sign that Schwab is not likely to forget about its small RIAs.

(Washington)

While it never really seemed to be in doubt, it is all but certain now that Democrats are going to bring articles of impeachment against President Trump. The party is likely to bring two separate articles against Trump by today, with an additional one possible. One will be focused on abuse of power, and the other one or two on obstructing Congress and obstruction of justice. In response to Republican criticism that the Democrats are rushing the impeachment process, Jerrold Nadler said “I want to be absolutely clear: the integrity of our next election is at stake. Nothing could be more urgent”.

FINSUM: No surprises here, but this will likely all be for nothing because of the Senate.

(Washington)

One of the leading trade bodies of the brokerage industry has just put out an alarming, and frankly logical, warning. SIFMA says that a growing body of regulation is threatening to completely end the brokerage industry as we know it. In particular, SIFMA says the rise of state-based fiduciary rules is likely to lead to the “lowest common denominator” regulatory solution in many states. Instead of trying to navigate a complex network of rules, the solution is simply to say “we do not have brokerage in our state”. Many states may only have advisory accounts, which according to SIFMA will mean "Clients will have one choice they can buy, which in many cases will be buying more services than they wanted and having to pay more than they wanted to”.

FINSUM: So anyone in the industry will realize that trade bodies put out warnings all the time. What makes this different is that it seems highly realistic, which makes it quite troubling. The reality is that for many clients brokerage is the right model, so it needs to be defended.